Sensitive points that must be resolved for democracy and genuine peace to return:
– How many commissioners and aides will each appoint and control?
– Who controls the lawmakers?
– How many LGAs should each control?
– Who decides who visits the govt house and who the governor visits?
– What percentage of FAAC and IGR should each control?
– Which presidential candidate should be supported and bankrolled by Rivers State govt?
– 2027: Should Fubara recontest or not?
It has at last emerged that Gov Sim Fubara (suspended) is speaking with both Nyesom Wike, his erstwhile godfather, and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the most influential politician in Nigeria today, in fact, the big masquerade deciding the immediate future of Rivers State politics. The bottom line is how to restart democracy in Rivers State so state of emergency can be called off and Gov Fubara can reclaim his seat.
Those who call Fubara names because of suspicion that he is the one going to seek reconciliation both in Abuja and London may have forgotten that when the Aso Rock agreement failed in implementation, many persons especially on the side of the FCT Minister blamed the governor for not seizing the initiative by going to his estranged godfather to seek way out.
Persons like Tony Okocha, now chairman of the Wike-backed faction of the All Progressives Congress (APC) regularly blamed Fubara for not doing this. He had also blamed Fubara after the Supreme Court judgment on February 28, 2025, for not first going to all the parties to persuade them to a negotiation table before anything else. Many now say Fubara may have taken that route this time around.
Most observers however ask what Wike and Fubara could be striving to resolve. But before answering this question, may want to know if truly there are such moves, other than media (especially social media) speculations.
Most persons believed to be men and women of final point of contact in confirming information about either Wike or Fubara have kept tight lips to avoid their lips being read. That, too, is sign that something big is happening.
Some of them have at least admitted that there was a meeting in London. Another such source confirmed there was a meeting with Wike in Abuja before Fubara proceeded to London.
One of such sources had even posted that Wike demanded that Fubara must bring those his backers who forced him not to fully honour the Aso Rock Agreement (ARA) to a joint meeting so nobody would go back and renege. The Wike camp is said to believe that the State of Emergency which the Fubara camp seems to vilify was more beneficial to Fubara than Wike because they open say the declaration saved Fubara from impeachment.
The Wike followers say had the 27 lawmakers impeached Fubara, it would have been difficult for President Tinubu not to back it and back the new governor who was to be the Speaker (Martin Amaehwule) regarded as Wike’s kinsman. The situation would have put Tinubu in difficulty because it was not clear the action would have followed all laid down procedures such as getting the Chief Judge to set up the Investigation Panel.
Many say Wike strategist may have since worked out how to get the job done, even if with much public outcry and flurry of suits.
Whatever be the case, now that the Presidency is pressing for political solution and negation, many are asking what would they discuss and what peace points would be on the table.
A man who served Wike as commissioner and is now on Fubara side named some points but said only Wike and Fubara know exactly what they agreed in the beginning before power exchanged hands. He is worried that no matter how they spar, none is openly saying what they agreed.
He said unless the public is allowed to know, it would be difficult for anybody to be judge.
Another former commissioner said it is now clear what the issues were because of utterances of both combatants. Wike has always talked his structure which is understood as mostly local council chairmen and state lawmakers, and then some cabinet members.
Fubara on his own had pointed at Internally Generated Revenue without saying anything. He only said he was being shown not more than N13bn per month but that when he looked deeper, he began to get up to N28bn. Many elders nodded their heads the way only elders can nod.
The governor also mentioned ‘giving a kidney and a liver’ as the only way to show loyalty. This has been very difficult to interpret because in these days of organ harvest, the statement could be literal or metaphorical. If it literal, it means what is required of him is actually as difficult as handing his life over, surrendering almost the entire government.
Wike had been accused by his opponents even within his cabinet of plotting a third agenda. This was understood to mean planting loyal persons from governor to cabinet members to lawmakers (at state and federal) and installing the entire LGA leadership, all loyal to him. From this, it was accusingly stated, he was to be running a shadow government.
Rumours were thus rife that Fubara was expected to drop 25% of federal allocation, but most Wike loyalists spit scornfully at this suggestion. Others say Fubara was expected to submit list of persons wishing to visit the Brick House (seat of power) in Port Harcourt, and also list of persons he wished to visit for screening and approval.
It was said that his decision to revamp an agric project executed by Wike’s bitter rival, Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi, and allowed to rot for eight years, angered Wike. He has not denied this. Others say Fubara’s penchant in doing what Wike refused to do such as paying pensions, promoting workers massively, employing new ones, reabsorbing those who were sacked ignominiously, and bringing out cases in court appeared to be an afront to his godfather because allegedly made women in Jerusalem to sing in praise of David against Saul, something that greatly angered the king, Saul.
The hard metals however were said to be issues around control of FAAC, IGR, LGAs, lawmakers, and the cabinet. Others could be pardoned.
Now that negotiation and reconciliation are to be done, what would be on the table; all of the above, some of the above, or none of the above?
A former commissioner said FAAC is disclosed in the press but IGR which used to be masked has been made open by Fubara, it would be difficult to deceive Rivers people on the amount now known to be about N28bn per month.
Some close sources said when the elders visited Wike for peace, he allegedly mentioned Fubara returning the entire LGA structure to him, and something like Fubara not aspiring to contest in 2027. He had openly boasted that Fubara would never return in 2027.
Wike is also seen as the real reason why Tinubu ‘won’ the presidency because of the five states he took away from Atiku Abubakar and the miracles of Rivers votes. It is thus clear in the kitchen cabinet what Wike means to the system, no matter the shouting by most social media critics. As the north gets restless, it may be the votes from the south-south and south-east that may compensate. So, the likes of Wike and Godswill Akpabio may not be as ordinary to Tinubu’s political interests as most persons are wont to believe.
In that case, Abuja may agree with Wike that control of the 23 LGAs in Rivers State is strategically critical to winning Rivers and whoever controls that structure is the one to be courted by Aso Rock. Many say Wike desperately needs that power while Fubara too wants it. That could explain why the State of Emergency seems to rage more in snatching the LGAs from Fubara by all means. Before now, Fubara seemed fully in control.
Most commentators chose not to be named but few dared to speak on this.
Fyneface Dumnamene Fyneface, executive director, Youths and Environmental Advocacy Centre – Nigeria (YEAC-Nigeria)
The terms of dialogue and negotiation for peace between Gov. Fubara and his political godfather, Nyesom Wike, would definitely be a return to status quo as the FCT Minister would want before he would allow peace to reign.
One may ask, what is ‘status quo’? It is the likely unholy agreement between former Governor Wike and Gov. Fubara at the point of Wike offering to support and hand over power to Fubara and Fubara accepting and consenting to abide by them but refused to do so after being supported by the FCT Minster and he assumed office, only for him to renege, five months into office in October 2023.
The actual agreement, its terms and how it had been reneged are only known to the FCT Minister and the suspended Governor Fubara.
Thus, any dialogue or negotiations for peace can only work when the FCT Minister and Gov. Fubara have met behind closed doors; look at the pre-governorship election support agreement between them, review its implementation so far before and leading to the crisis, look at the grey areas, make amendments, discuss and agree on areas of improvement going forward in the interest of peace, before involving third parties in the peace process.
I can tell you categorically, based on antecedent and comments from the FCT Minister that he won’t let go more than 50% of whatever was offered in the agreement contract term to Fubara. Sim Fubara accepted to do them just to get into power first.
Thus, no dialogue or negotiation for peace would work until Wike and Fubara who alone know what they both agreed and how Fubuara allegedly failing to keep them has led to the crisis.
A former commissioner:
You are very right on IGR. While I was a member of the State Executive Council, I used to wonder why the RIRS boss was attending the Council meetings even if the Commissioner for Finance was also attending. Later events made it clearer to me that the former governor made it so since he was dealing with RIRS directly. It’s simple: governor and RIRS boss can do anything with IGR. All it will take is to channel some inflows into special bank accounts opened and operated by both individuals only.
The real truth is that Fubara blocked those rogue accounts and the RIRS boss promptly informed the Minister that the new Sheriff in town has blocked those accounts. That was at the centre of the wahala. Hope you now know why both individuals ain’t revealing anything.
This is my joy! What we earn as IGR is public already. It’s like a pregnant woman that has delivered in the marketplace, what else is there to hide?
I don’t care about what they negotiate as long as our IGR is safe. Of course, Wike may be deeply hurt (over certain disclosures already in the public domain).
On the other hand, it is safe to also think that Wike doesn’t want to remove Fubara as governor. He was only be frightening him and deceiving the rest of us (the world) that he wanted Sim out of the way. He knows that Sim knows where all the bones are buried.
People should simply ask themselves why he overlooked all his strong cardinals (his henchmen) and chose Sim to succeed him.
Blessing Wikina: Public communications expert;
In the negotiations to come, the interest of Rivers people won’t be on the menu.
In the last two years, as it is the tradition, Ministers will try to attract Federal presence to their states, as a way of “giving back”. But whereas Federal actions are happening around the East and South, nothing is happening here (Rivers).
For instance, Benin Asaba Road is being reconstructed, up to the Niger Bridge head.
Also, Akwa Ibom has the presence of the South-South Development Commission inter alia.
Only lately, neither Uniport, nor Rivers State University, each with a teaching hospital, was listed to benefit from Federal Government multi-billion naira intervention funds.
Where other Ministers are celebrating what they have done in their states, we can’t be part of that celebration.
It was disturbing that Rivers lawmakers were seen in churches, cafes, etc, in London, purporting to be on a legislative retreat to see how laws were made in the U.K. There is actually nothing on the table for Rivers people.
In all these, a question props up: What does the Minister want? Is he planning to contest a Presidential Elections?
Or there is an unseen, unknown script; certainly, it’s a personal ego trip. Not a development agenda move for the people.
Darlington Nwauju:
The purse of Rivers State should matter oh.
Conclusion:
Three interests will meet at the negotiations: Wike’s structure, Fubara’s tenure, then public interest. The public would not be there to defend their interest, and they may lose out. (BusinessDay)
