Rice glut in global market has crashed the price of Thailand parboiled specie from $502 to $390 per tonne or $7.8 (N12,480) per 50 kilogrammes bag, leading 23 per cent slump.
However, consumers in Nigeria are still paying about 79 per cent or N58,000 per 50 kg on smuggled parboiled rice from Benin Republic due to 2.18 million tonnes shortage valued at N1.4 trillion ($850.2 million) in local production.
Consumers in Nigeria are paying about 70 per cent on smuggled parboiled rice from Benin Republic due to 2.18 million tonnes shortage valued at N1.46 trillion ($941.75 million) in local production.
It was learnt that export restrictions placed by India has been removed, leading to over supply in the global market as the country’s rice sellers flood the market.
Findings also revealed that India’s rice stocks alone totaling 63.09 million tonnes in April were nearly five times its government target historically the world’s largest rice exporter.
Data by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) estimated global rice production would hit a record 543.6 million metric tons in 2024/25, with total supply (including stockpiles) reaching 743 million tonnes, far above projected demand of 539.4 million tonnes.
Global rice prices started crashing in April 2025, following the decision by India to lift embargo on export on rice imposed in 2022.
This move drove Indian parboiled rice prices to a 22-month low, with prices in Thailand and Vietnam dropping to their lowest in over three and five years, respectively.
President of the Rice Exporters Association, B.V. Krishna Rao explained: “Even after the recent significant correction, we don’t expect a price rebound. The supply glut will likely prevent prices from increasing.”
Despite its longstanding rice import restrictions, Nigeria has continued to tap into the global market. In 2023, the country imported $7.26 million worth of rice mostly from India ($5.9 million), the UAE, Thailand, Benin, and the United States.
The fastest-growing sources of rice imports included India, which saw a $2.87 million year-on-year increase.
However, it was learnt that surplus in the global markets has pushed competitors such as Thailand and Vietnam to scale back exports as Thailand’s rice exports fell 30 per cent in Q1’25, and are projected to drop 24 per cent for the year, while Vietnam’s are expected to decline 17 per cent.
In January 2025, Nigeria received a 32,000-tonne shipment of brown rice from Thailand, facilitated by logistics firm DUCAT, under a temporary tariff moratorium aimed at easing food inflation.
In March this year, Thailand, the major exporter of the grain to Benin crashed the price of its rice by 14 per cent from $502 to $432 per tonne, putting the landing price of a 50 kilogrammes bag in Benin to be N21,600 ($21).
Also, Pakistan and Vietnam have also cut the price their rice to enable them compete with Thailand in West African market.
However, in Nigerian market, finding revealed that the same bag of rice are being sold between 56,000 and N58,000 to consumers as the country face a deficit of 2.18 million tonnes (43.6 million 50-kg bag of rice valued valued at N1.46 trillion ($941.75 million) in 2025 due to low production.
Last month, the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS), Federal Operations Unit, Zone A, Lagos intercepted 3,832 bags of 50kg foreign parboiled rice equivalent to seven trucks in the southwestern part of the country.
Findings revealed that the milled rice production in Nigeria would drop from from 5.60 million tonnes to 5.22 in 2024/25 season, while paddy rice also forecast to decrease to 8.30 million tonnes from 8.90 million tonnes in the season.
The National Bureau of Statistics, in its forecast for 2024/25, estimates rice consumption at 7.4 million metric tonnes.
The increase is attributed to consumers’ preference for foreign parboiled rice, as it remains more affordable compared to other staple foods.
It was gathered that because of the low production, by the third quarter of 2025, paddy rice prices are anticipated to escalate from N1.10 million to N1.30 million per metric tonne.
Recall that AFEX in its report had explained that global rice production would rise by 8 per cent, while price would drop to 11 per cent in 2025.
Worried by the anticipated low output, the Rice Farmers Association of Nigeria (RIFAN) expressed concern amid rising demand.
According to RIFAN Lagos State Chairman, Mr. Raphael Hunsa, local production has fell short of demand, saying that rice production in Lagos had been consistent for a while now but was not enough to meet the growing demand for the grain.
He said: “Our production capacity is quite low. Last year, we managed to produce only 3,800 tonnes of rice, which falls far short of the market demand.
“The Lagos State Government through its Ministry of Agriculture and Food Systems has been of great help to the sector through various interventions.
“However, there is a limit to how much the government can help if farmers are not consistent in tending to their farms. If the government is helping local rice farmers, they must utilise the aid by making sure they are consistent in cultivation.”
Hunsa added that many farmers were yet to cultivate their farms this year, advising members to remain consistent in cultivation to increase production output and meet growing demands while also advising the government to channel farmer empowerment initiatives through association leaders to ensure interventions reach the right beneficiaries.
Hunda explained: “We, however, urge the government not to relent in supporting local farmers in order to achieve food security and increase production output.” (New Telegraph)
