The National Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reported that Nigeria’s crude oil production came in at 1.48mbpd in June 2023 (inclusive of 55,088bpd and 176,030bpd of its blended and unblended condensates respectively).
This is 3.5% and 5.71% higher than its oil production of 1.43mbpd and 1.40mbpd in May 2023 and June 2022 respectively. However, the nation’s crude oil production still came short of the 2023 budget projection of 1.69mbpd for the year.
Oil theft has been a major factor behind Nigeria’s low production numbers and the government has made concerted efforts through increased pipeline surveillance to clamp down on oil theft.
On a month-on-month basis, the Forcados terminal was the main driver of growth as the terminal produced the total crude oil and condensate production to 7.90mb in June 2023 from 7.01mb in May 2023.
The Bonny, Brass, Qua Iboe, Escravos, and Odudu terminals recorded crude oil and condensate production of 3.21 Mb, 1.14 MB, 3.79 MB, 4.48 MB, and 3.11 Mb in June 2023 compared with 3.73 Mb, 1.14 Mb, 4.10 MB, 4.78 MB, 3.29 MB and 1.13 MB in May 2023.
The Federal Government of Nigeria through the Ministry of Petroleum intends to significantly increase its total oil production to 1.7mbpd by November 2023 which we consider a rather ambitious target.
We had expected a faster recovery in oil production in 2023e, which made us forecast average oil production of 1.6mbpd for 2023.
Our expectation was based on the increased pipeline surveillance and the clampdown on oil theft by the government.
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However, production numbers have not recovered as fast as expected.
We project average crude oil production (including condensates) of 1.5mbpd in H2 compared with 1.45mbpd in H1, implying average production of 1.48mbpd for 2023 compared with our earlier forecast of 1.6mbpd.
