“New NNPCL boss targets 3m barrels per day, $60bn investment by 2030” – News report, April 18, 2025.
Just when you think the Nigerian State cannot possibly appoint an official who will turn a minor disaster into a major calamity, you are soon convinced of your mistake. I thought it was the best decision of the Tinubu government was made when Mele Kyari, the former Group Managing Director of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, GMD-NNPCL, was sacked. I assumed then that no successor, if carefully selected, could be as bad or worse. Kyari, if he gets to read this article, has my sincere apologies. Things could be worse after Mele.
I had intended to write an article titled MY BROTHER GMD-NNPCL PLEASE START WITH THE TRUTH. The thrust of the article was based on three pillars each of which is based on facts available to the most casual researcher. Casting modesty aside, I am not a casual researcher. My small Consultancy unit works all the time on a few macro-economic issues. One of the six major economic indices we track, indeed, the number one, is the petroleum sector — crude oil and fuel – in all their ramifications. We frequently make predictions regarding performance in the sector; and we were almost always right. By contrast, government and NNPCL officials have proved to be serial dissemblers and their forecasts are often wrong. Since 2013, NNPCL’s crude production projection estimates, which constitute the basis of the annual budget, have also been the cardinal causes of budget failure every year till now.
Something must be seriously wrong with people once they assume office – high or low – in Abuja. Dr Reuben Abati, after his service with President Jonathan’s failed government, declared that demons permanently inhabit Aso Rock – waiting to turn previously intelligent and honest public commentators into serial liars (not exactly his words, but synonyms of what he wrote). They apparently regain their senses only after leaving the Aso Rock dungeon of dragons.
They once again start to observe what critics were saying, which they vigorously refuted when in office. The Giant Strides they wrote about disappear like the mirage they were all along. There is no single Presidential spokesperson alive today who can praise his former boss publicly without receiving an avalanche of maledictions from the denizens of the social media – as well as serious-minded people. They all share one thing in common; making false utterances while in office and forgetting that the appointment will end one day.
OJULARI HAS STARTED ON A FALSE NOTE, LIKE BOLA IGE.
“Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”George Santayana, 1863-1952.
Ojulari being a technical professional, trained mostly in Nigeria, can be forgiven for lacking a strong sense of history – a subject which is not taught in Faculty of Engineering in Nigerian and British universities.
Otherwise, he would have known that the first thing you do on assuming top office is to find out what happened in the past – especially if your predecessor was unceremoniously sacked. What went wrong resulting in loss of confidence by the President?v “Power failure in Nigeria will be a thing of the past in six months.”Late Chief Bola Ige, Federal Minister, June 1999.
Ojulari’s ill-advised pronouncement about 3 million barrels per day crude oil production reminds me of late Chief Bola Ige, who was appointed Minister of Power and Steel by President Obasanjo in 1999. Ige’s first announcement forced me to fly to Abuja, at my own expense, to warn him to retract the statement. I told him that the power sector is so large and complex; he would need a full year to understand and manage it.
Promising an end to power failure amounted to self-inflicted reputation damage. He not only bluntly refused, I was ordered out of his office – “otherwise I will call the security to throw you out.” We met again in his Bodija residence at Ibadan; after he was redeployed to Ministry of Justice. There was power failure and the generator was on full blast. I then reminded him of our first meeting. He apologised profusely and ended up by saying: “Dele there are some witches and wizards in the power sector who don’t want things to work.” Well, the Petroleum sector has its own army of dragons and wizards who are there to trip up any new GMD-NNPCL who promises great things without their consent. Kyari learnt that like wisdom on the eight day of the week – as he was shown the gate recently. Ojulari risks leaving NNPCL worse than he found it; if he insists on starting with false promises. Here are two reasons why.
HISTORY OF CRUDE PRODUCTION AND CURRENT SITUATION
“Every forecast must start with an objective study of what happened in the past based on data available.” Lecture on FUTURISM in Boston, USA, 1970.
As I was finishing my MBA Course in Boston, USA in 1970, futurism, or the attempt to predict future trends, was gaining popularity. I hopped on the wagon; and thank God for that. That study has saved me from falling into traps set by public officials like Kyari and Ojulari when they make unrealistic predictions about the future of our country regarding crude production and export. If Ojulari had bothered to find out the truth, he would have discovered that his predecessors in office, not just Kyari, since 2013 have been promising the FG of increased crude production to 2mbpd and they have failed every single day in 12 years.
Most recently, Nigeria in January, February and March of 2025 averaged only about 1.5mbpd; and April will not be better. With such huge negative variances in actual production against budget, what is the basis for optimism about reaching 2mbpd – not to talk of 3mbpd?
Furthermore, the new GMD-NNPCL, like the rest, speaks as if he is ignorant of the existence of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, which regulates members’ production. Nigeria’s quota is currently 1.5mbpd and is unlikely to be increased to 2mbpd – well into the foreseeable future – for reasons too complex to be discussed now. Nigeria producing 2mbpd will not only trigger response from other producers – OPEC and non-OPEC – the country will be forced to utilise most of the crude internally. Shocking as it might be to most of us, our internal consumption of crude is not strong enough to support production of 2mbpd.
Obviously, 3mbpd promised by Ojulari is wishful thinking at its worst; and it is destined to bring the same disastrous consequences as Nigeria has experienced since 2013.
“Wishful thinking is not idealism. It is self-indulgence at best and self-exaltation at worst. In either case, it is at the expense of others.”
Creatosaurus. All the GMD-NNPCL has deceived us long enough. For too long, the FG primarily, and the Nigerian people ultimately, have been victims of unfulfilled promises made by the Ministry of Petroleum, under Presidents Jonathan, Buhari and now Tinubu – as well as the GMD-NNPCL.
The Presidents have been fed outright lies about Nigeria’s sustainable capacity to produce and export 2mbpd crude oil; they swallowed the lies and based budgets on them. Every budget since 2013 has failed and the 2025 budget is already in the trash can of history with eight months to go.
•Written By Dele Sobowale
