Riven by infighting, defections and an identity crisis, the party is imploding under the weight of its own contradictions.
Once hailed as Africa’s largest political movement and having vowed to rule Nigeria for 60 uninterrupted years, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is now a shadow of its former self, fractured and fighting for survival.
On 24 February, Nigeria’s main opposition party, the PDP, began selling nomination forms for the upcoming governorship election in Anambra State. Two weeks passed without a single aspirant showing interest, forcing the party to extend the deadline. Eventually, Jude Ezenwafor, a little-known politician, picked up the form and emerged as the party’s sole candidate at the primaries in Awka, Anambra State.
The PDP is a dying party mainly because it abandoned zoning. I don’t see the party surviving beyond 2027
For historian David Aworawo, the party’s decline in fortunes reflects how far it has fallen in Nigeria’s political landscape.
“The party will likely continue to go down,” says Aworawo, of the Department of History and Strategic Studies at the University of Lagos.
How Obasanjo and Atiku led the party to power in 1999
Established as a centre-right party in 1998, the PDP was the only party with a truly national outlook heading into the 1999 election. It selected former military ruler Olusegun Obasanjo as its presidential candidate shortly after his release from prison. Obasanjo chose Adamawa State governor-elect Atiku Abubakar as his running mate, and together they swept to victory, winning 25 of Nigeria’s 36 states.
By 2003, the political landscape in northern Nigeria had shifted, as conservatives advocating for the full implementation of Sharia law gained ground. This contributed to the rise of former Head of State General Muhammadu Buhari, who had joined the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP). However, the PDP consolidated its hold on southern Nigeria and Christian-majority states in the north, securing a resounding victory. Of the 17 states in southern Nigeria, Bola Tinubu was the only governor who was not a member of the PDP.
In 2007, Obasanjo annointed former Governor Umaru Musa Yar’Adua as the PDP’s presidential candidate, insisting that power must return to the north.
Many of its people left, including Obasanjo. That was the turning point, because we saw five governors leave, and then there was internal sabotage
The 2007 election marked a low point in electoral credibility, with widespread malpractice—Yar’Adua was declared the winner even before voting had concluded in some districts.
The party’s national chairman at the time, Vince Ogbulafor, famously boasted that the PDP was so deeply ingrained in the Nigerian DNA that it would rule for “at least 60 years”.
Impact of Jonathan’s presidency on PDP’s trajectory
But Yar’Adua’s presidency was cut short by illness, and his deputy, Goodluck Jonathan, a southern Christian, took over, triggering resentment among northern elites who felt short-changed.
In the run-up to the 2011 election, Jonathan faced stiff opposition from northerners both within and outside his party. General Buhari emerged as the candidate of the core Muslim north, where he won resoundingly. However, the weakness of his party, the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), coupled with the absence of a southern support base and his limited appeal to northern Christian minorities, proved to be his Achilles’ heel.
Jonathan eventually won the 2011 election, sparking riots and killings in several northern states. Quietly, the political landscape in the South West had also begun to shift, as Tinubu’s party, the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), won almost every regional election in the zone, either through the ballot or by court rulings.
But that was not the only trouble the PDP was facing. The north was experiencing a surge in terror attacks, with at least six bombs detonated in Abuja alone, including at the United Nations headquarters, the police headquarters, a shopping complex, a media house and a motor park. As the Boko Haram insurgency worsened and the 2014 Chibok schoolgirl kidnappings drew global condemnation, Jonathan’s popularity plummeted.
The party will likely continue to go down
Opposition parties, including Tinubu’s ACN and Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Change, merged to form the All Progressives Congress (APC), capitalising on Buhari’s cult following in the north. Tinubu helped provide financing and brought with him four South West governors from Lagos, Ogun, Osun and Oyo.
Jonathan’s refusal to cede the 2015 PDP presidential ticket to a northern candidate alienated key allies. Four PDP governors defected to the APC, and Obasanjo publicly tore up his PDP membership card in protest.
“Many of its people left, including Obasanjo. That was the turning point, because we saw five governors leave, and then there was internal sabotage,” recalls history professor Aworawo.
Corruption allegations and mass exodus of key figures
In the 2015 elections, Buhari and the APC won 16 of the 19 northern states and swept the South West, ending the PDP’s 16-year grip on power.
“There was an agitation in 2015 for power to return to the north, which Jonathan was not willing to concede. Such acts are considered a mortal sin in Nigerian politics,” says columnist and political analyst Majeed Dahiru.
The fallout was swift. Buhari’s government launched sweeping corruption probes against PDP officials. Over $2bn meant for arms procurement were allegedly diverted to election campaigns. Former oil minister Diezani Alison-Madueke was indicted for fraud running into billions of dollars.
There is no central authority in the PDP, and so everyone became a leader in their own right
In the process, many opposition politicians were investigated or charged. A handful of them joined the APC to avoid being probed. This further depleted the PDP’s ranks to the extent that, by the 2019 election, it was unable to win outside its traditional base. Buhari’s northern support also remained firm, making it impossible for the PDP to make any inroads.
Internal divisions ahead of the 2023 elections
Despite Buhari’s unpopular economic record, the PDP was unable to mount a cohesive challenge ahead of the 2023 elections. Deep internal divisions led Peter Obi to join the Labour Party, Rabiu Kwankwaso to form the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), and Rivers State’s Nyesom Wike to lead a rebellion of five governors after losing the PDP presidential ticket to Atiku.
However, Olisa Metuh, a founding member and former PDP spokesman, tells The Africa Report that the party’s biggest problem following its 2015 defeat was the absence of a clear leader — a vacuum that made it difficult to enforce discipline or resolve internal conflicts.
“There is no central authority in the PDP, and so everyone became a leader in their own right,” he says.
Generally, there was a feeling that, since Buhari, a core Muslim northerner, had completed eight years in office, a southerner should succeed him. However, Atiku, a northern Muslim, was the PDP’s standard bearer. The 2023 elections proved disastrous. The PDP won just 11 states, losing even its South East stronghold for the first time since 1999.
“Buhari had been accused of being clannish and marginalising the South. The clamour for a southern candidate was thus very strong, but the PDP failed to read the room and committed a mortal sin by picking Atiku,” Dahiru says.
But Atiku’s spokesman, Paul Ibe, disputes this. He tells The Africa Report that it is the ruling APC that is fuelling the crisis, using law enforcement agencies to pressure opposition figures into defecting, or face trumped-up corruption charges.
PDP loses ground and governors defect to APC
Since its poor performance in the February 2023 elections, the PDP’s internal crisis has only deepened. The party has lost five governorship contests to the ruling APC and seen its number of governors shrink from 13 to 11. Delta State, a PDP stronghold since 1999, fell after Governor Sheriff Oborevwori defected to the APC. In Edo, the PDP also suffered defeat.
Akwa Ibom Governor Umo Eno has announced plans to join the APC in June, citing the PDP’s prolonged infighting, a crisis expected to derail its preparations for the 2027 election. This would reduce the party’s governors to just 10.
Plateau Governor Caleb Mutfwang is also in talks with the APC after a controversial court ruling sacked all PDP officials (except the governor) from elected office. He has been openly invited to join the ruling party by the APC. Adamawa Governor Umar Fintiri is also seen as leaning towards the APC.
By 2027, the PDP may be left with just eight governors, and of those, only three are considered loyal and visibly playing the role of opposition: Dauda Lawal (Zamfara), Bala Mohammed (Bauchi), and Douye Diri (Bayelsa).
The clamour for a southern candidate was thus very strong, but the PDP failed to read the room
The party remains mired in a prolonged feud between Atiku and Nyesom Wike, who is now aligned with President Tinubu. Amid the turmoil, Atiku is reportedly on the verge of defecting to the African Democratic Congress (ADC) to form a new opposition coalition with figures such as Obi.
“The PDP is a dying party mainly because it abandoned zoning. I don’t see the party surviving beyond 2027,” says analyst Dahiru, adding that Atiku is largely to blame.
Some veterans believe redemption is still possible. Founding member and former PDP national chairman Bode George tells The Africa Report that the party can survive, but warns it may all come crashing down if it fields another northern candidate in the next presidential race. (The Africa Report)
