Former Governor of Anambra State, Dr. Peter Obi is always trending on Twitter. He trends more than any presidential aspirant on Twitter, even more than former Vice President and PDP Presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar and the APC Presidential candidate, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu.
His social media handlers are always demonising Atiku and Tinubu in order to paint Obi as a saint. If presidential election was to be conducted today on Twitter, Obi will floor Atiku and Tinubu by a landslide.
His social media movement is so strong and is buoyed by several Igbo in the diaspora and the youth population. But election is not won on Twitter or in any other social media platform.
The former governor of Anambra State recently defected from the PDP to Labour Party when he knew that there was no way he could win the PDP’s presidential ticket, with the heavyweights in contest. He simply capitulated and bowed out of the party and pitched tent with a lower party, with which he wants to vie for the presidency.
Presidential aspirants, such as Prof. Pat Utomi stepped down for him to emerge Labour Party’s Presidential candidate. But who is Utomi? Can he win his state’s local government election talk less of the presidency? Obi chickened out when he had heavyweights to contend with in PDP. He preferred to go for the featherweights.
Anyway, the die is cast, Obi is Labour Party’s presidential candidate and will rub shoulder with the likes of Atiku and Tinubu in next year’s presidential election. The question is, can Obi pull an upset in next year’s presidential election? The answer is simply ‘No’. Forget about the social media movement and so on, that won’t count. In 2019, if election was to be conducted on social media, Atiku would have defeated President Muhammadu Buhari, but the truth is that over 80 percent of Nigeria’s voters are not on social media-the market men and women, the laymen and women, the uneducated, the amajiris, the locals and so on.
Looking at a nation plagued with ethnicity and religion, Obi’s chances become slimmer. He cannot defeat Atiku or Tinubu in the North. He cannot defeat Tinubu in the Southwest or even in the South-South. The votes in the east will be divided because the Igbo are not united. The East has always been pro-PDP region apart from Anambra controlled by APGA. But right now, APC controls Imo and Ebonyi. In the South-South, which used to be dominated by PDP, APC now controls Cross River, Edo will be highly contested between PDP and APC. It is doubtful if Obi can upstage Tinubu and Atiku in these areas.
Obi’s party affiliation is another problem he will have, Labour Party has never made impact in Nigeria’s political scene. In 2019, Labour Party took 30th position in the election and could only get 5,074 votes nationwide. But with Obi’s influence, he may get more votes, but he will not in anyway nears Tinubu or Atiku, reason being that the North and Southwest can never trust Obi with their votes.
Let Obi trend on Twitter and in other social media platforms, let him win election on Twitter, let his popularity soar on social media, but that will count for nothing. The grassroots is key, does he have the financial muzzle to upstage the big guns. Obi is only dreaming and will wake up from his dream when the reality dawns on him.
