It is exactly 16 months since the political crisis broke out in Rivers State between Governor Siminalayi Fubara and the FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike. For one year and four months, Rivers, prided as the hub of West African oil and gas, has been embroiled in a war of attrition over the control of its political soul.
But last Friday’s Supreme Court verdicts gave what may change the political destiny of the state for a long time. The judgement hit the state like a thunderbolt, leaving in its wake silence and despair on one side, joy and jubilation on the other.
It was shocking that from Thursday, February 27, some allies of Wike were seen on social media celebrating ahead of the court judgment, which later went their way on Friday.
Before now, there were five consolidated cases at the Supreme Court, one was dismissed a fortnight ago while four were left. The four consolidated cases include SC/CV/1174/2024, between Rivers State House of Assembly and others against the Rivers State Government and nine others, and SC/CV/1175/2024, between Rivers State House of Assembly and others against the Rivers State Governor and nine others.
Others were SC/CV/1176/2024, between Rivers State House of Assembly and others against Rivers State Independent Electoral Commission, RSIEC, and nine others; SC/CV/1177/2024, between Rivers State House of Assembly and others against the Accountant General of Rivers State and nine others, and SC/CV/1071/2024, between Rivers State House of Assembly and others against the National Assembly and 16 others. (The last one has already been dismissed).
When the judgment was finally given by the apex court on the four consolidated cases, Fubara was literally stripped of his political structure as it invalidated the October 5, 2024, local government elections, his influence on the state legislature, and validated the suspension of federal allocations.
Succinctly, the reinstated 27 lawmakers loyal to Wike are returning to the status quo with a mindset of revenge having been denied the paraphernalia of their legislative office for many months and Wike, having had his ego dangerously bruised by Fubara’s audacious opposition to his (Wike’s) domineering posture on the state.
Impeachment
The greatest fear in the Fubara camp is that with the Supreme Court matter done and dusted, many think pro-Wike group would not hesitate to implement their initial plan. That is the impeachment of Fubara.
Several reliable sources confirmed this fear. They hinted that the process is not planned to take a long time to accomplish. Accordingly, the 27-assembly lawmakers, who are now likely to carry out the dictates of their master, may call for the head of the Attorney General after “the suspension of the 3-man Victor Oko-Jumbo Assembly”.
Wike set the ball rolling when he allegedly said: “All Fubara’s commissioners and his 3-member assembly are all gone. They are not commissioners, they never existed in the first place. I am sure his so-called Attorney-General will not go and say he is the Attorney-General of Rivers State again. He knows the consequences of saying that, he knows that he is gone”.
INC/PANDEF
President of Ijaw National Congress, INC, Professor Benjamin Okaba, reacting to the apex court’s judgment on Saturday, called for calm, saying the judgment was not the end of the matter.
“We are still studying the implications of the judgment. When we discovered that the issue of defection was not mentioned by the Supreme Court, it left us confused. For now, we want everybody to be at peace and go about their normal responsibilities”, Okaba said.
He noted that, as a pressure group, INC will continue to work within the confines of the law of the land. But “if injustice is seen to have taken an upper hand, we then will decide on what next to do”.
Also, Chief Anabs Sara-Igbe, a chieftain of pan-Niger Delta Elders Forum, PANDEF, said whatever must have been the outcome of the judgment “is not strange to us.”
He alleged that before now, Wike had been boasting that “the Supreme Court was in his pocket”.
Sara-Igbe said he was waiting to see how the Supreme Court would reverse itself by saying that Martin Amaewhule and the 26 other lawmakers who defected to the All Progressives Congress, APC, are members of the Assembly.
According to him, the suspension of the state’s allocation is a call for violence “so that they will declare a state of emergency in Rivers State. To suspend the revenue of a federating unit means that they are calling for a crisis. We pray this does not truncate our democracy”.
Options For Fubara
With the major consolidated cases before the Supreme Court against him, it does appear that the only lifeline left for the governor is the case of the defection of the 27 lawmakers to the APC.
It is important to note that of all the five consolidated cases brought before the Supreme Court, defection was not one of them. This explains why the judgment was silent on the matter.
As they say in the legal system, the court cannot give you what you didn’t ask for. The Supreme Court did not rule on the defection of the 27 lawmakers because it was not brought to its table for determination.
While the defection case is still in the Federal High Court in Port Harcourt, it is not clear whether the pro-Wike House of Assembly would have the patience to allow Fubara enjoy the long process of following the case through up to the Supreme Court.
They know that the defection case is a bad one by every inch of the Constitution. So, what may follow is to quicken the process of getting the governor out of the way to naturally kill the case once and for all.
On the options open to the embattled governor, Sara-Igbe believes that as a strategist, Fubara will wait for the final determination of the defection matter. ”Fubara believes in God. And God will make his enemies fools”, he said. He said: “If Amaewhule and his co-travellers go ahead to impeach the governor, there will be resistance.”
Also speaking on the options, Okaba stated: “Fubara is a strategist. His options will depend on the interpretation of the judgment. There is no cause to panic. We have to wait and get the interpretation of the judgment”.
Also speaking, Chief Eze Chukwuemeka Eze, a chieftain of APC in Rivers State, said the only option for Fubara “is prayer”. According to him, “ enemies of the state have taken over, the only thing left for the governor is to pray for God’s intervention.
Another possible option Fubara may undertake to save his neck from the political guillotine, according to a top Ogoni politician who prefers anonymity, is to decamp to the APC.
“Yes, there are various options open to him. One of that is a political solution to the crisis. In doing that, he would be given conditions to fulfill. One of that is to decamp to the APC to guarantee President Tinubu of 2027”, the source said.
Fubara had already created what could be a formidable platform for his political future when he directed all the 23 local government chairmen to contest the October 5 council election on the platform of the Actions Peoples Party, APP.
It’s not over –Fubara
Despite the turn of events, Fubara appears unruffled. A credible source close to the state government confided in Sunday Vanguard that “the governor was full of life when we spoke on phone. I called him to encourage him to stay strong. He told me it is not over yet.”
Another source argued that every impeachment has its own process. “Before things are concluded to get the governor out of the way, the defection case must have been concluded. That is the way he could wriggle himself out of the shame of possible impeachment,” he said.
The weeks ahead would be loaded with surprises. As things stand, Rivers people and the entire nation are waiting to see where the pendulum swings.
(Vanguard)
