Quiet talk is turning louder as the son of Nigerian President Bola Tinubu takes on a bigger role in Lagos State politics.
The rumoured governorship ambition of President Bola Tinubu’s son, Seyi, began as little more than political gossip. But as election season draws near, murmurs within the upper echelons of Lagos politics are growing louder. And the forthcoming local council elections may just be a pointer of what is to come.
At least 432 aspirants will be jostling for 57 local council tickets in the primaries of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in Lagos State. For the last 20 years, the winners have emerged largely through the sole support of President Tinubu – who has been godfather of politics in the state – and his loyal lieutenants.
But with Tinubu now preoccupied with the presidency and increasingly distant from local party machinery, his son is emerging as a key player in the intricate politics of Lagos.
“I was not planning on contesting before. But with Seyi’s support, I am now 70% sure of victory,” says an aspirant who wished to remain anonymous for fear of retribution.
The story is similar in many other councils across the state. “Many leaders in the APC are not sure if Seyi is acting on his father’s instruction or not, and they are not brave enough to challenge him,” the aspirant says.
The fear of Lagos politicians is also borne out of the fact that President Tinubu personally reinstated Mudashiru Obasa, the impeached speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly, despite protests from the leader in the state.
“The Obasa incident has made the political leaders in Lagos wary after they got their fingers burnt,” says Jide Ojo, a political analyst.
‘Special list’ of winners in primaries?
In council elections, the real fight is in the ruling party’s primaries — the main vote is often a formality, with boycotts and credibility issues dogging the process.
These local council elections are vital because the winners often serve as the ruling party’s foot soldiers at the grassroots during governorship and presidential polls.
Already, there are indications that the outcome of the primaries has been predetermined, with a special list reportedly featuring the names of winners endorsed by influential state leaders.
The narrative they are playing up is that it is time for the new generation of politicians to take over in Lagos and that Seyi is the messiah
In Surulere, for instance, the next local council chairman is set to be the incumbent, Yusuf Bamidele Sulaiman, who is running unopposed as the anointed candidate of Femi Gbajabiamila, the president’s chief of staff and Surulere’s political leader.
But in councils where there are no strong leaders, the president’s son is wielding more power, especially in local councils like Amuwo Odofin.
Lagos governorship bid would be a risky move
Seyi’s rising influence ahead of the council elections feeds into the widespread belief that he is eyeing the Lagos governorship next year. This is because the control of the councils gives one an edge. Even so, party loyalists say that his status as the president’s son makes it difficult to challenge him.
“The narrative they are playing up is that it is time for the new generation of politicians to take over in Lagos and that Seyi is the messiah,” says Fouad Oki, who has led four successful governorship campaigns in Lagos.
He tells The Africa Report that Seyi running for governor while his father seeks re-election would be a risky move, especially given that several APC leaders in the state have been prohibited from fielding their children in the council elections.
“I will wait till after the council election to know where things are going. There will be a post-mortem and then we will know if the ambition is real,” Oki says.
In recent months, Seyi has stepped up his visibility within the party, donating food, supplies and cash to indigent communities as part of a broader effort to mobilise grassroots support. But his rising profile has not been without controversy.
[Seyi] appears determined to purchase political loyalty for his father by any means necessary, including coercion, violence and intimidation
Last month, he came under fire over his alleged involvement in the violence that marred the election of the National Association of Nigerian Students (NANS), with critics accusing him of backing one of the factions in the disputed process.
Opposition leader and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar urged Tinubu to caution his son “who appears determined to purchase political loyalty for his father by any means necessary, including coercion, violence and intimidation”.
Seyi has denied any involvement in the violence linked to the NANS election, but the allegations have done little to slow the momentum building around his potential candidacy. His political clout continues to grow.
His protégé, Wisdom Olawande, who now serves in Tinubu’s cabinet as minister of youth development, promised to mobilise support for him should he receive the green light.
Jide Ojo, a political analyst, says Seyi’s rumoured political ambition fits a familiar pattern in Nigerian politics, where the children of powerful politicians often seek elective office.
He notes that former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s daughter, Iyabo, won a senatorial election at the tail end of her father’s tenure while Tinubu supported his wife Remi for senator when he left office.
Ojo, however, argues that the optics of a father and son serving as president and governor at the same time is strange to Nigerian politics.
“That will be descending to the theatre of the absurd for him to contest at the same time [as] his father even though he has the right to do so,” he tells The Africa Report.
(The Africa Report)
