President Bola Tinubu and former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar were business partners, political associates and scions of the Yar’Adua dynasty dating back to 1992. What went wrong?
About 20 years ago, governor Bola Tinubu of Lagos State was fighting one of his biggest political battles ahead of the 2003 governorship poll. He had fallen out with his deputy as well as the chairman of the party while his earlier problems with US law enforcement and questions over his academic qualifications were being used by opponents to discredit him.
Simon Kolawole, editor The Week, had put together an exposé on the Tinubu school certificate scandal. Copies of the magazine were set for distribution when Kolawole was told to hold its release.
“In 2002, The Week produced an edition revisiting the allegations, insisting that many questions remained unanswered. But on the instructions of my employers, the magazine was not circulated – even though it had been printed,” he says.
“The magazine was owned by Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, then vice-president. He and Tinubu were tight friends and political associates, despite being in different parties,” Kolawole adds.
Still standing
In the 2003 governorship election, the Alliance for Democracy (now a defunct party) lost woefully across the southwest to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) except in Lagos where Tinubu won re-election, earning him the title, ‘the last man standing’.
Atiku said Tinubu deserved the glory because he was the one who convinced the leadership of the PDP and President Olusegun Obasanjo not to snatch Lagos from Tinubu.
“Whereas I was the one who asked Obasanjo, in 2003, to leave Lagos State for Tinubu, we took all other southwest states but we deliberately left Lagos for Tinubu,” Atiku told The Africa Report.
Ironically, Atiku has now moved to the Supreme Court seeking Tinubu’s disqualification for alleged school certificate forgery, the same scandal he reportedly protected Tinubu from 20 years ago.
This sums up their complicated, push-pull relationship.
Clash of titans
A confidential US diplomatic cable dated 21 February 2003 released by Wikileaks stated that Tinubu confirmed to an American diplomat that it was Atiku who convinced him to join politics in the early 1990s, adding that their relationship defies political logic.
“Tinubu and Atiku had a close relationship dating back to the early 1990s; their friendship is one that defies party lines and perhaps political logic,” said US official, Bryan Browne.
This has proven to be true in many ways.
Ahead of the 2023 presidential poll, they faced each other with Tinubu running on the All Progressives Congress (APC) platform and Atiku as the flagbearer of the main opposition PDP.
Every day, their campaign managers issued statements attacking the other side while online supporters were at daggers-drawn.
Yar’Adua boys
The two men were always friendly when they met. A viral video of an unscheduled meeting between Atiku and Tinubu at the private wing of the Nnamdi Azikiwe airport in Abuja on 14 November 2022 shows a much softer side of their relationship.
“You’re no longer in Lagos?” Atiku asks. “I’ve moved to Abuja now because of the elections,” Tinubu says as the two men sit on a red sofa, laughing and holding hands as they discuss other issues.
Weeks later, they met by chance at the same airport and spoke for a while before heading for separate rallies.
Atiku and Tinubu were protégés of General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua, the de facto vice-president of Nigeria in the late 1970s and leader of the Peoples Front. The party became the Social Democratic Party (PDP) ahead of the 1993 presidential poll. Tinubu was elected senator on the SDP platform while Atiku lost at the presidential primary to MKO Abiola.
Abiola went on to win the presidential poll which was annulled by the military government leading to a national crisis and a coup. During the ensuing struggle for the return to democracy, Tinubu and Atiku were in exile.
2007 line up
Upon their return, the two politicians joined separate political parties with Tinubu pitching his tent with the southwest progressives and Atiku moving over to the PDP, the party of the conservative northern ex-generals. Atiku and Tinubu became vice-president and governor, respectively.
Despite being members of different parties, they remained close. When Tinubu fell out with the leadership of the AD and Atiku’s relationship with Obasanjo became frosty, they decided to form a new political party, the Action Congress (AC).
With the tenure of Obasanjo – a southerner – coming to an end, most expected that a northerner would be the next president of Nigeria. This amplified the chances of Atiku, a northern Muslim.
Some leaders in the AC wanted General Muhammadu Buhari to be their presidential candidate but Tinubu reportedly stood his ground.
“It seemed Tinubu’s preference for Atiku Abubakar swayed our collective decision,” wrote Bisi Akande, the erstwhile chairman of the party, in My Participations.
Tinubu expected Atiku would pick him as running mate but the latter had other plans.
Religion & politics
Atiku said that because Tinubu was also Muslim, it would be wrong for the party to run a same-faith ticket as this would offend Christian voters and chose Senator Ben Obi from the southeast.
Tinubu, in turn, refused to support Atiku in the main presidential election. Atiku said Tinubu betrayed him and collaborated with Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, the PDP presidential candidate who eventually won.
“Tinubu didn’t support me in 2007 at the primaries held in Lagos; I won on merit. He later sent people to me so he could be my running mate but I don’t like Muslim/Muslim ticket. To date, I will never support it,” Atiku told The Africa Report.
Three years later, Atiku parted ways with Tinubu and returned to the PDP in order to contest the presidential primary where he lost to President Goodluck Jonathan who had just months earlier succeeded the Yar’Adua.
2013 snub
In 2013, Atiku and Tinubu re-united and formed the formidable All Progressives Congress (APC), a merger of four big parties. The consensus among most Nigerians was that a Muslim northerner should be president and this again presented an opportunity for Atiku to contest.
However, Buhari, who holds a cult following in the Muslim north, was also in the race. Lacking the financial muscle to win the presidential primary of the APC, Buhari asked Tinubu to support him with the understanding that Tinubu would be his running mate.
Atiku had also reached out to Tinubu for support but the latter reportedly snubbed him, insisting that only Buhari could defeat President Jonathan.
Buhari won the presidential primary. But after securing the party’s ticket, he said he could not pick Tinubu as his running mate because doing so would cost them the Christian vote. Buhari eventually picked Tinubu’s protégé, Yemi Osinbajo, as running mate and they would go on to win the presidential poll.
Battle of old friends
In 2019, Atiku won the presidential primary of the PDP and contested against Buhari of the APC, whom Tinubu, a chieftain of the APC, supported.
The 2023 election was the first time Tinubu and Atiku would go head-to-head. Tinubu won the poll and sent a delegation of governors to Atiku with a view to getting him not to challenge his victory in court.
Should Tinubu go after Atiku, it would be suicide
However, Atiku rejected all entreaties. Having lost in court, he has proceeded to the Supreme Court along with evidence obtained from Chicago State University that suggests that Tinubu may have forged the university certificate he submitted to the electoral commission.
“For me, the issue is not whether Tinubu graduated from Chicago State University or not. It is the fact that former vice president Atiku is not a decent man,” says Tinubu’s spokesman.
“Nobody should subject his or her friend to the level of assault and indignity he has subjected the president to because of earthly position and contestation for power. We are talking of a man who moved mountains for Atiku in the past,” says the president’s spokesman.
Ties that bind
Atiku says Tinubu betrayed him on several occasions, including in 2007 when Tinubu allegedly dumped him in order to support the opposition. Atiku says he will do everything legally possible to ensure that Tinubu is removed as president.
Will Tinubu decide to go after Atiku’s business interests to seek revenge?
“Tinubu and Atiku are business partners,” says an associate of Atiku.
“Atiku holds a stake in Oando and Intels, although he sold most of his Intels stakes to Tinubu. Tinubu owns huge stakes in Oando. Should Tinubu go after Atiku, it would be suicide.”
(The Africa Report)
