I met with Alhaji Atiku Abubakar on Saturday, 27th January 2018, at his residence in Asokoro Abuja, exactly at 1:57pm, after a scheduled appointment from Dr. Muazu Babangida Aliyu, (Talban Minna), former governor of Niger State. The appointment was booked for me to meet with Atiku and discuss on an International Summit in conjunction with Harvard University Center for Africa Studies and a book presentation at Chatham House, London. Alhaji Umar Pariya (Atiku’s most powerful political gladiator) called on ADC Arzika and Mr. Sunny to write my name “Saidu Ahmed” then underlined it and write beneath the name “Dr. Muazu Babangida Aliyu”. That directive made everything easier, as there were many high-profile politicians who came earlier, waiting at the living room.
I was accompanied by Sulaiman Yashi, a bosom friend. We had a fruitful discussion with Atiku. When we left the office, on our way back to meet with Talban Minna, I realize how serious and focused Atiku was with the 2019 presidential bid. But I have never feared that if he lost the election, that he would head to court. This is because his humble aura and articulate analysis never revealed in any way that he is desperate for power.
After the PDP Primaries, I knew that he is ready for the race, but my gut told me that defeating President Buhari at this time would be a difficult battle. Defeating Buhari will mean more than just money, which is also a cardinal element that cannot be ruled out in contemporary Nigerian politics, the most expensive in Africa. I stand on the intellectual shoulders of Ayisha Osori, who wrote the beautiful book, ‘Love Does Not Win Elections’.
In the future, we will be remembered by how many times we stood for truth especially during difficult and controversial episodes in life. We will also be remembered by how we refuse to succumb to the pressure of what stand in discord with justice, happiness, faith and all other cardinal virtues. Politics is a game for the compos-mentis, power is a function in the realm of politics, but none of these is permanent, even if combined together.
Atiku sir, you are like other political leaders that have existed and reign in history. Emperors, courtiers, diplomats, warriors and military philosophers, etc. all were challenged by the spirit of the times, because nothing is permanent they reign and die. Some were utterly forgotten, some were remembered, while some have become schools of political thought. You are on the verge of making an epochal moment in your life as a career politician or statesman. The path you choose now will define your personality in history. Success is sweet and failure is awkwardly painful. Both are not ordinary choices a leader should make, they are a radical function of destiny, especially during those times we are been tested by God, to quest for power in our social world. The way we manage either success or failure explains who we are: A chemistry of character and destiny.
I might not know the exact amount of time and resources expended in vying for the presidency of Nigeria in the 2019 general elections, but if I was the presidential candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), I will concede defeat and congratulate President Muhammadu Buhari. Alternatively, if I happened to be part of the campaign council executives, I will humbly advocate for a united Nigeria or with great respect ask Atiku to concede defeat and move on. I will not go to court, or advise my political party to do the same.
Political psychology studies of voting process in some Northern part of the country shows that, electorates vote for political parties, and not candidates. The firm roots of the Buhari agenda that ousted the PDP from power in 2015 still lingers in the minds of many. There is no point of polemics or heated debate here, the South-West always functions as a political coalition that is led by a particular leader who always stands as the image of the South-West. Today, Chief Bola Tinubu occupies that position. Late Chief Obafemi Awolowo, of blessed memory, was the foundation of the Yoruba political ideology, and has become a political and ideological path to many in the South-West geopolitical zone.
Hon. Chibuke Amechi, Chief Ogbonnaya Onu, Governor Rochas Okorocha, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, etc., since 2015 have represented the South-South and South-East in Buhari’s presidential Politics. The combination of these forces amongst others are some of the fundamental reason why the Atiku race to power has become an unfeasible project. We will not leave out other tangential forces like Obasanjo and the ‘cult’ of generals who have taken the side of statesmanship, but yet are forces that always shape the chances of who becomes the next leader.
Opinion polls showed that if Hon. Mohammed Sharu, House of Representatives candidate for the PDP, (Bida-Gbako-Katcha Constituency in Niger State) had earlier contested the same position under the APC, he could have succeeded and won the election. Some electorates after the election, said they prefer him to the other candidate, but the only problem is he is in PDP and they would not vote for the party. In the Northern part of Nigeria, politics is local, and you need more than enough reasons to beat the establishment.
Malam Mohammed Bima, 2019 APC Senator-elect for Niger South Senatorial Zone, Niger State, was one of the impressive political leaders who had massive grassroots support from all the 8 local governments in his zone. He combined two things that gave him a unique stand in the rough race to the Senate. First, he never believed the title ‘APC’ alone will win him the Senate seat. He saw the party APC as a robust platform with the right public appeal. Then finally, he took his campaign and manifesto to the grassroots, moving from ward to ward talking to electorates. He won the election as a newcomer in partisan politics, proving that it is not being new that matters, but reputation, resources, electorates opinion over that of the party, campaign team and strategy, then finally destiny. Not all of us are destined to govern at the same time. Some now, some later, some never.
Atiku, sir, you will agree with me that Nigeria is bigger than everything that transpired in the 2019 elections. Already, some politicians are scheming for 2023, showing you how fugacious our thoughts are about the present, and even the future. I’m very confident and hopeful that you will follow with sincere recollection, the path of your mentor, Late General Shehu Musa Yar’adua, an embodiment of nationalism, democracy and statesmanship.
*Saidu Enagi wrote in from Gwarinpa, Abuja.
