..Imports from Nigeria hit six-month high
American refiners are increasingly turning to Nigeria’s light, sweet crude as geopolitical tensions disrupt traditional oil trade routes, pushing imports from the West African nation to their highest level in six months.
The shift comes on the heels of a sharp escalation in U.S. trade pressure on India. Just last week, President Donald Trump doubled tariffs on Indian crude imports from 25 percent to 50 percent, accusing New Delhi of “fueling Putin’s war in Ukraine” by continuing to buy massive volumes of discounted Russian oil.
India has been a key player in the reshaping of global oil flows since Western sanctions hit Russia in 2022.
Over the past two years, it became the single largest buyer of Russian crude, taking advantage of steep discounts and accounting for as much as 40 percent of Russia’s total oil exports at its 2024 peak. The arrangement kept India’s refineries running at full tilt while keeping the country largely off the competitive spot market for other crude grades.
Now, Washington’s move is forcing U.S. refiners who previously sourced some crude through India to seek alternative suppliers, and Nigeria has quickly filled that gap.
Imports climb
Fresh data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis show that crude shipments from Nigeria to the U.S. surged to about seven million barrels in June, up 36.6 percent from May’s $311 million in sales.
That brings Nigeria’s total crude exports to America for the first half (H1) of 2025 to 24.3 million barrels, valued at $1.38 billion.
Nigeria now dominates America’s African oil imports, accounting for more than 62 percent of the U.S.’s total African crude purchases between January and June. By comparison, the combined shipments from Libya, Angola, and Ghana to the U.S. over the same period were worth roughly $1 billion.
Energy analysts say the numbers are a direct result of refiners’ preferences for Nigeria’s crude profile.
“U.S. refiners are buying more Nigerian crude because its light, sweet grades fit perfectly into their gasoline and petrochemical output needs,” said Ayodele Oni, energy partner at Bloomfield Law Practice. “Price movements have also made Nigerian barrels attractive, especially with disruptions in other supply regions.”
He noted a curious twist: even as U.S. refiners increase their purchases from Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy imports more American crude, particularly for the new Dangote refinery.
“Certain West Texas Intermediate (WTI) blends are cheaper than Nigerian Brent-linked grades, even after shipping,” Oni explained. “The refinery’s configuration allows it to blend these U.S. barrels with local crude to optimise yields and meet export standards.”
A two-way street
This counterflow underscores the complex, often counterintuitive nature of modern oil markets.
“It’s a game of global arbitrage,” Oni said. “Each buyer is sourcing the crude that gives them the best product output at the lowest cost. The U.S. wants Nigerian grades for their blending and quality advantages, and Dangote wants U.S. WTI for pricing and processing benefits.”
Adding to Nigeria’s competitive edge, Russia’s once-deep discounts, a lifeline after Western sanctions, have narrowed in recent months.
This has pushed India, one of Moscow’s most loyal crude customers, to diversify again, with Nigerian barrels now more appealing on the global stage.
But domestic supply challenges complicate the picture.
Dangote’s supply gap
Chinedu Onyegbula, an independent energy sector expert, pointed out that much of Nigeria’s oil is ‘committed’ under joint venture (JV) contracts with international partners, leaving limited volumes available for local refiners.
“Dangote is unable to meet the demands required for his refinery and, as such, has to import a good volume from the USA to meet those obligations,” Onyegbula said.
“Some oil that Dangote gets from Nigeria through the NNPC is part of a previous agreement requiring a certain portion of production for domestic obligations. However, that amount is not enough to keep the refinery going.”
He argued that Nigeria must strike a more ‘efficient, equitable, and sustainable’ balance between honouring JV export contracts and ensuring domestic refineries, even privately owned ones, have sufficient feedstock.
“The domestic benefits and opportunities Dangote presents for our economy and energy security are too important to overlook,” he said.
Refinery needs drive trade patterns
Ezenwa Odiri, another oil sector analyst, stressed that crude flows are ultimately determined by refinery specifications and economics.
“These are demand-driven figures,” Odiri said. “Refineries will look for crude oil of their specifications anywhere they can get it. U.S. refiners may have the wherewithal to get Nigerian crude, which is of the specification they desire, and Dangote may not.”
He also noted the role of intermediaries. “Nigeria’s crude oil sales often go to middlemen first, who dispose of their cargoes at their discretion. The US government also has energy security policies that allow it to buy crude from any place at any time to shore up reserves or manipulate demand and prices.”
In Dangote’s case, a recent dispute over payment for crude in naira, rather than U.S. dollars, and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company’s (NNPC) resistance, have also driven the refinery to source more feedstock from abroad.
“Dangote has been sourcing crude oil outside Nigeria, particularly from the U.S., whose grades match the refinery’s configuration,” Odiri said.
Geopolitics, economics collide
The US crackdown on India’s Russian crude imports adds another layer to the market recalibration.
By targeting a key player in Russia’s oil export chain, Washington is not only tightening the economic noose on Moscow but also redirecting trade flows in ways that benefit suppliers like Nigeria.
India’s refiners, now facing higher U.S. tariffs and growing pressure from Western allies, are being forced back into competition for non-Russian grades. Nigerian crude, with its favourable refining characteristics, is emerging as one of the top alternatives.
“This is purely economics,” Odiri said. “India has been buying cheap Russian oil and is now facing sanctions from the U.S. They have to look elsewhere for feedstock to run their refineries, and Nigeria is one of the most logical choices.”
Nigeria’s position
For Nigeria, the current moment is an opportunity to strengthen its position in the global oil market, but it also comes with risks.
Higher demand from both the U.S. and India could lift export revenues, but if domestic refineries remain undersupplied, the country could end up importing more refined products at a higher cost, undercutting the gains.
Moreover, Nigeria’s dominance in African oil sales to the U.S. could attract more competition from other producers, especially if prices remain favorable for lighter, sweeter grades.
“Markets are fluid,” Oni said. “Today Nigeria has the advantage, but disruptions in other regions, shifts in OPEC policy, or changes in U.S. refining economics could alter the equation quickly.”(BusinessDay)
