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What to expect in 2025 as banks brace up for CBN’s recapitalisation

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BY the end of the year, all commercial, merchant, and non-interest banks would have just three months left to meet the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) recapitalisation requirements.

The apex bank had mandated a compulsory recapitalisation of all the banks in the country.

Recapitalisation requirements

The apex bank had set March 31, 2026, as the deadline for all the banks to raise their capital base, giving a two-year period that started on April 1, 2024.

The apex bank pegged the minimum capital requirement for commercial banks with international exposure at N500 billion, commercial banks with national authorisation at N200 billion, regional banks and merchant banks at N50 billion, non-interest banks with national and regional operations at N20 billion and N10 billion, respectively.

The capital requirements can be through private placements, rights issues and/or offers for subscription, mergers and acquisitions (M&As), and/or upgrade or downgrade of license authorisation.

At the Annual Bankers’ Dinner in November 2023 where the CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, officially announced the compulsory recapitalisation of the banks, he said it is aimed to enhance banks’ resilience, solvency, and capacity to continue supporting the growth of the Nigerian economy.

Other requirements set by the CBN included that the minimum capital shall comprise paid-up capital and share premium only and not include shareholders’ funds.

“Additional Tier 1 (AT1) Capital shall not be eligible for meeting the new requirement. Notwithstanding the capital increase, banks are to ensure strict compliance with the minimum capital adequacy ratio (CAR) requirement applicable to their license authorisation.

“In line with extant regulations, banks that breach the CAR requirement shall be required to inject fresh capital to regularise their position,” CBN cautioned.

Only 6 out of 43 banks have complied

As of the close of the 2024 financial year, only about six banks out of 43 licensed deposit money banks have issued one form of securities or the other to raise funds to meet the CBN capital base requirements.

With a large chunk of the banks left to make issuance to investors, many of them may be rushing to the capital market next year to raise funds to meet CBN’s March 2026 deadline.

As of October 2024, five banks had raised approximately N1.27 trillion from the capital market.

The Guaranty Trust Holding Company raised N400.5 billion, Access Holdings N350.1 billion, Zenith Bank N289.1 billion, Fidelity Bank N127.1 billion, and FCMB Group N110.9 billion.

Sterling Financial Holdings Company was also in the market for N153 billion after finalising a $50 million capital raise through private placement.

As of December 2024, FBN Holdings was in the market to raise about N150 billion by way of rights approved by its shareholders, same with United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc to raise N239.4 billion rights issue.

List of licensed banks

The ICIR reported on Tuesday, May 8, 2024, that CBN on its official website, provided insights into the country’s banking landscape as follows:

Banks with international authorisation

  1. Access Bank Limited
  2. Fidelity Bank Plc
  3. First City Monument Bank Limited
  4. First Bank Nigeria Limited
  5. Guaranty Trust Bank Limited
  6. United Bank for Africa Plc
  7. Zenith Bank Plc

Commercial banks with national authorisation

  1. Citibank Nigeria Limited
  2. Ecobank Nigeria Limited
  3. Heritage Bank Plc
  4. Globus Bank Limited
  5. Keystone Bank Limited
  6. Polaris Bank Limited
  7. Stanbic IBTC Bank Limited
  8. Standard Chartered Bank Limited
  9. Sterling Bank Limited
  10. Titan Trust Bank Limited
  11. Union Bank of Nigeria Plc
  12. Unity Bank Plc
  13. Wema Bank Plc
  14. Premium Trust Bank Limited
  15. Optimus Bank Limited

Commercial banks with regional licenses

  1. Providus Bank Limited
  2. Parallex Bank Limited
  3. Suntrust Bank Nigeria Limited
  4. Signature Bank Limited

Non-interest banking sector with national authorisation

  1. Jaiz Bank Plc
  2. Taj Bank Limited
  3. Lotus Bank Limited
  4. Alternative Bank Limited

Merchant banks with national authorisation

  1. Coronation Merchant Bank Limited
  2. FBN Merchant Bank Limited
  3. FSDH Merchant Bank Limited
  4. Greenwich Merchant Bank Limited
  5. Nova Merchant Bank Limited
  6. Rand Merchant Bank Limited

Market’s anticipation

The primary market of the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) will be very active as banks and many issuers approach the market to raise fresh capital in 2025, a capital market operator, David Adonri, told The ICIR.

“Since the global meltdown, this is the first time that the Primary Market is genuinely becoming very busy. Market depth and absorption capacity of the market have increased considerably to assure issuers of resounding success,” he said.

Adonri, who is the executive vice chairman of Highcap Securities Limited, believes the Nigerian equities market has been strengthened with robust technology to handle any number of public offerings and as a result of its enhanced technology, its reach has been extended to every corner of the world.

“The capacity of the Primary Market has also been enhanced by favourable conditions in the secondary market and growing foreign investors’ confidence in the market. I don’t expect an avalanche or crowding of issues in 2025 as the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) has a timetable for coming to the market by issuers,” he maintained.

He noted the huge growth of equities that started last year has continued into 2024 with the year-to-date return of the All-Share Index (ASI) appreciated by 35.2 per cent.

“This growth is expected to extend to 2025 due to emerging favourable market and economic conditions. When compared to 2023, aggregate dividends paid by listed companies have increased by 118 per cent in 2024.

“With the anticipated recovery of the manufacturing and telecom sectors in 2025, together with rising investors’ confidence, the profitability and rise in dividend yield of the equities market should be expected,” Adonri added.

On his part, the national president of New Dimension Shareholders, Patrick Ajudua, said that there are more expectations from the banks post-re-capitalization.

“Hence, we anticipated a better dividend payout and capital appreciation on our investment. We also expect to see some mergers and acquisitions in 2025 which are aimed at meeting up the re-capitalisation.

“I don’t think we expect any bonus issues as this may lead to dilution of shares, but we expect that no bank will be cut up in the deadline all things being equal,” Ajudua said.

An investment and portfolio analyst, Abel Ezekiel, noted that capital raising requires strategic planning else it could be flops which is not good for the image of an organisation.

He further said it was mostly the tier-1 banks with a wide range of investors, local and international, and could pool out money where the ones that have come into the capital to raise funds to meet the CBN requirements.

Even some of the banks that issued their rights issues at a price higher than the market price got investors’ patronage.

“This is strange in the capital market. Why is it a rights issue if they are not giving preferential treatment to existing shareholders but have to buy it at a higher price than the market price?

“What is the logic there? What stops me from buying it in the secondary market where I will immediately be entitled to dividends yield when so declared? Ezekiel expressed concern.

He assumed the tier-1 banks banked on their financial muscle, networks and their reach to raise the capital which may be a reason they did it at the time into the fourth quarter of the year when people are burdened with paying children’s school fees and doing other things towards the year’s end.

“Other banks that are watching or on the sideline, it may be they want to reason it out and come out at a favourable and convenient time,” he stressed.

According to Ezekiel, based on what has happened with the offers thus far, it appears it favoured the banks, and that could be a pointer to what should be expected in 2025.

“I believe the market will be liquid and solid enough to accommodate others, knowing fully well that we have more than 12 months for them to strategically come into the market to raise funds.

“I believe they are aligning with their investor’s advisers, counselling not to rust into the market but to wait for a favourable time to come out with their offers,” he said.

He also believes that the market will be able to absorb the remaining banks’ issuance in the coming year, maintaining that it is a question of aligning portfolios and using them to buy more favourable securities.

“Everything is about strategic thinking and return on investment. I think the market will cope with the volume of issuance expected to come in.

“I don’t know if the CBN will give an extension of maybe six months. But I don’t think it will be a do-or-die affair where the CBN will say if a bank doesn’t meet up, it will liquidity the bank. It is not good for the CBN to liquidate a bank and start looking for how to pay depositors and investors their money. I think the market will absorb the issues within the period,” he added.

(ICIR)

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