Who will replace Mahmood Yakubu as INEC chairman in 2027?

 

 

Professor Mahmood Yakubu, chairman of Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), will step down in October 2027 after serving the maximum two terms, totalling 10 years. His departure is drawing attention because the choice of his successor will significantly impact the credibility of the 2027 elections, particularly as President Bola Tinubu is expected to run for re-election.

Why is Yakubu’s exit significant?

Yakubu has overseen two general elections (2019 and 2023), making him the longest-serving INEC chairman since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999. His replacement will be pivotal, as the public perception of INEC’s neutrality is crucial to the legitimacy of elections.

Have there been controversies around his tenure?

Yes. Yakubu’s handling of the 2023 general elections faced sharp criticism, particularly from opposition parties. Technical failures of critical election technologies, along with logistical delays, prompted allegations of bias and incompetence.

Opposition groups repeatedly demanded Yakubu’s removal, which led to recent false rumours of his early dismissal.

Who could replace Yakubu?

No official candidates have emerged, but speculation centres on whether Tinubu might appoint someone from his own region, the South West, or opt for the North Central — the only two regions yet to provide an INEC chairman since 1999. A recent false report named Professor Bashiru Olamilekan, a Yoruba academic, hinting at potential thinking in government circles.

Has regional representation influenced past appointments?

Traditionally, Nigerian presidents have avoided appointing INEC chairpersons from their own regions to prevent accusations of bias. For instance:

• President Olusegun Obasanjo (South West) appointed Abel Guobadia (South South) and Maurice Iwu (South East).
• President Goodluck Jonathan (South South) appointed Attahiru Jega (North West).
• President Muhammadu Buhari (North West) appointed Mahmood Yakubu (North East).

Given this historical precedent, President Tinubu faces pressure to maintain regional neutrality or risk accusations of regional favouritism.

Would appointing someone from the South West be controversial?

Yes, potentially. Critics argue that Tinubu’s previous appointments have disproportionately favoured the South West, his home region. However, former INEC commissioner Professor Lai Olurode argues it would not be unethical to appoint a qualified South Westerner, highlighting that the position should genuinely be open to candidates from any region.

Why are INEC chairs usually academics?

Almost every INEC chairman since 1999 has been a professor, except the first chairman, Justice Ephraim Akpata. Legal expert Olukoya Ogungbeje points out this is merely tradition, not a legal requirement, stating: “No law says only a professor can be appointed as INEC chairman.”

How is the INEC chairman appointed?

The president nominates the candidate after consulting the Council of State, then forwards the name to the Senate for confirmation. However, because the president chairs the council and usually controls the Senate through his party, there’s significant room for political influence in the process.

The National Assembly has never rejected any of Tinubu’s political nominees since he came to power in May 2023, except for Nasir El-Rufai, whose ministerial nomination was blocked by the Senate, a move he later attributed to Tinubu’s behind-the-scenes manoeuvering. Olurode acknowledges this flaw, highlighting the risk that the appointment may serve presidential interests.

Are there safeguards against a biased appointment?

According to Ogungbeje, current legal safeguards are weak. He argues for implementing reforms suggested in the 2008 Uwais Report, which recommended structural changes to depoliticise INEC appointments. Without such reforms, INEC chairmanship remains vulnerable to political influence.

What other electoral issues does INEC face?

Beyond appointing a new chairman, INEC must tackle systemic challenges exposed in the 2023 elections. Key issues include technology failures and poor logistics:

• BVAS and IReV, introduced to enhance transparency, malfunctioned extensively during the presidential election. Though subsequent off-cycle elections have shown improved use of these technologies, experts say INEC must ensure robust backups and decentralised technical support to avoid a repeat in 2027.
• Logistical failures, such as delayed delivery of voting materials, repeatedly undermined voter trust. These delays often lead to voter disenfranchisement and undermine public trust.

 

Yakubu has promised reforms but stresses the need for clearer laws on electronic versus manual result management.

What happens next?

President Tinubu’s choice of the next INEC chairman will significantly influence public trust in the upcoming elections. While appointing a South Westerner is possible, doing so could trigger controversy. However, maintaining regional neutrality could reassure opposition groups concerned about impartiality.

Ultimately, whether Tinubu prioritises credibility or political convenience in this appointment will shape his legacy and the integrity of Nigeria’s electoral democracy.