Kano, northern Nigeria’s most populous state, is key to the 2027 election, with its revered emirate stool at the heart of a fierce power struggle.
The power clash between Kano Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, All Progressives Congress (APC) national chair and former governor Abdullahi Ganduje, and Alhaji Muhammadu Sanusi, the emir and ex-governor of Nigeria’s central bank is intensifying.
Sanusi, the 16th emir, has been in a running battle for the control of Kano with his cousin, Alhaji Aminu Ado Bayero, who enjoys the backing of President Bola Tinubu’s federal government and its security apparatus.
Sanusi’s recent summons by the police to appear before an investigative panel in Abuja — and the later retraction of that summons — has been widely interpreted as part of the political maneuvering by the ruling APC.
The party seeks to regain its dominance in Kano and secure its more than six million votes for the president. It also plans to wrest the state from the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) led by Senator Kwankwaso, who remains a key contender in the 2027 elections.
Sanusi, a critical voice against the Tinubu administration, was initially summoned to provide an account of the events that led to the breakdown of law and order following a controversial horse-riding procession he led after Eid prayers. The police claimed the act contravened prior security arrangements.
However, Inspector-General of Police Kayode Egbetokun reversed the order after backlash in the north. Egbetokun directed that the Force Intelligence Department discreetly obtain Sanusi’s statement in Kano.
Sanusi blames political interference for Kano crisis
Following the police ban on the traditional Sallah Durbar (a grand cultural event in northern Nigeria, especially among the Hausa-Fulani, celebrating Eid al-Fitr and Eid al-Adha), Sanusi urged residents of Kano to remain calm and prayerful, insisting the emirship tussle was not about his person but a matter of divine will.
His comments were widely interpreted as veiled criticism of ex-governor Ganduje and what many consider a federal government-backed effort to challenge his reinstatement.
“This tussle is not targeted at me; they are fighting what God has destined to happen. God doesn’t need anyone’s support. I am pleading with you to be patient and prayerful. Surely, God will continue to support those who are fair and just,” he said in a pre-recorded audio broadcast late March.
The system is being mobilised not to protect the law, but to suppress a man who speaks inconvenient truths
He further warned those allegedly trying to destabilise the state, saying: “Insha’Allah, whoever is challenging God’s decision will not end well.”
Earlier in January, Sanusi sparked controversy by revealing that he chose not to back Tinubu’s administration, citing how he was treated by those currently in power.
At a public event in Lagos, the emir noted that while he had “a few points” to explain the administration’s direction and how its decisions were foreseeable, he refrained from doing so because “they don’t behave like friends”.
He also criticised Tinubu’s inner circle, alleging a lack of credible voices to defend or explain government policies.
Reacting to Sanusi’s remarks, the federal government expressed disappointment, suggesting the Emir’s criticisms were politically motivated. “As a government, we urge esteemed leaders to refrain from rhetorics that undermine public trust,” said Mohammed Idris, the minister of information and national orientation, in a statement.
“This is a critical time for our country; what is needed is collaboration, not unnecessary distractions,” he said.
Political machinations at play
Following the declaration of a state of emergency in oil-rich Rivers State – where the governor has been locked in a protracted feud with a member of Tinubu’s cabinet – concerns have mounted in Kano that the federal government could adopt a similar approach amid the lingering crisis over the emirship.
Lending weight to these fears, Buba Galadima, a close associate of Kwankwaso, alleged in a recent interview that there was a covert plot – unknown to Tinubu – to set up both the Kano State Government and the emir. He said the aim is to push the president into declaring a state of emergency similar to that in Rivers State.
The two states, alongside Lagos, are crucial to winning Nigeria’s presidential election.
Galadima’s position summed up what many Kano residents and commentators in the state have feared might play out. Public affairs pundit Muktar Adamu Wudil believes the reversal could therefore not be an independent action by the inspector general of police but a response to political pressure.
Either Kwankwaso will be forced to join the APC or continue fighting for his political survival, in which case the Kano votes will be fragmented
“He acted on instruction – whether whispered or direct – from political patrons who find Emir Sanusi’s presence inconvenient. His return and uprightness threaten entrenched interests. The system is being mobilised not to protect the law, but to suppress a man who speaks inconvenient truths.”
For many observers, the episode highlights Tinubu’s strategy to either win Kano in 2027 or at least weaken the opposition’s chances of sweeping the state.
In the 2023 election, Tinubu received only 517,341 votes in Kano, while Kwankwaso secured 997,279.
With the growing momentum of opposition coalitions — spearheaded by figures like former Kaduna governor Nasir El-Rufai, an ally of Sanusi — the president’s camp, led by Ganduje, a former Kano governor and now APC national chairman, knows it cannot afford to lose Kano’s votes.
“Either Kwankwaso will be forced to join the APC or continue fighting for his political survival, in which case the Kano votes will be fragmented, denying the PDP or the opposition coalition the solid votes needed to defeat the APC, just as happened in 2023,” Wudil tells The Africa Report.
“This is why Tinubu won’t be interested in resolving the fracas,” he says.
‘Cutting Sanusi down to size’
According to Saidu Dukawa, a senior lecturer at Bayero University Kano, the rift will favour Tinubu in 2027.
Dukawa suggests that the police backed down because senior figures might have intervened, or the summons was never intended to proceed.
“It may have been just to remind the emir of his vulnerability to federal power – cutting him down to size, so to speak,” he says.
The summons aimed to reinforce the government’s authority over Sanusi, with the halt of the Durbar ceremony seen as a major win for Tinubu’s administration, says Kano-based political science lecturer Aminu Hayatu.
“If Sanusi had succeeded in organising the Durbar in its traditional form, it would have sent a powerful message to the polity that Emir Sanusi remains the emir of Kano, and this would have far-reaching implications for future politics in the state,” Hayatu tells The Africa Report.
He says this is why the Kano government is considering establishing its own security apparatus to counter federal overreach.
Kano’s political influence in 2027
While the six million votes remain important for Tinubu’s second term bid, Kano’s strategic position in the north-west geopolitical zone, which carries weight in Nigerian politics, is also a major concern.
Kano has long influenced the political direction of neighbouring states. Thus, the presidency’s reversal on Sanusi’s summons may be a calculated move to avoid alienating Kano’s electorate ahead of the 2027 election, according to observers.
While the issue may appear to have been resolved, it could be part of a strategy to avoid further escalation, says Seyid Hassan Cisse, a lecturer at Kwara State University.
“In the 2027 election, whoever loses Kano can be said to have lost the race. Though Lagos is now the most populous state, the margin between it and Kano is narrow. If the presidency hopes to secure Kano’s support, it must allow tensions to subside. Otherwise, the state might withhold its political weight, which would be costly,” Cisse says.
(The Africa Report)
