From party to productivity: Can Lagos turn ‘Detty December’ into lasting economic growth?

As 2025 comes to an end, Lagos, like the rest of Nigeria, buzzes with the energy of ‘Detty December; an emerging economy that peaked at ₦54 billion in hotel bookings and 550,000 inbound travelers in 2024, indicating a resilient consumer behaviour.

The 2023 and 2024 periods saw a substantial rise in tourism and economic activity, with 2024 reaching a new high: attracting over a million visitors, mainly from the diaspora, and generating tens of millions in revenue for hotels, clubs, and rentals. This also solidified Lagos’s status as Africa’s entertainment capital through sold-out concerts and events, despite economic challenges that made some activities more expensive for locals.]

This peak suggests that this mandate could transition from seasonal consumption to disciplined investment. Navigating this shift requires moving beyond the “Economy of the Underdog’ mindset toward strategic foresight in a multipolar world. The key question remains: will Nigeria harness this festive momentum to finally develop its long-awaited economic identity, or will 2026 be another year of growth without equity?

Seasonal spending, procyclical inflation
As Nigeria transitions into the “new strategic dispensation,” the economic narrative is one of hard-won resilience. The most inspiring indicator is the dramatic collapse of headline inflation from a staggering 33.2% in 2024 to a projected 14.45% by November 2025. This disinflationary path signals a move toward macroeconomic stability, yet the ‘December blip’ remains an inevitable seasonal rhythm.

Historically, December triggers a “tug-of-war” where festive-induced demand meets supply-side inelasticity. The 2024 “cost of living crisis” is being replaced by a more controlled spike, fueled by “Detty December” consumption.

Evidence of this demand surge is staggering: 550,000 inbound passengers- 90% from the diaspora- and ₦13.5 billion spent on food alone within the hospitality sector. While prices for proteins and transport will rise, 2025’s stability is anchored by a managed Naira, expected to trade near ₦1,450/$, and favourable base effects. Unlike the previous year’s volatility, this blip is a sign of a pulse- a market operating on its production possibility frontier, with resources fully utilised. Ultimately, this seasonal peak reflects a search for economic identity, where disciplined growth finally meets the vibrancy of Nigerian consumerism.

The diaspora anchor

Nigeria’s year-end economic pulse is increasingly anchored in its diaspora, a demographic that provides vital short-term foreign exchange liquidity. By 2025, approximately 600,000-800,000 inbound passengers, 90% of whom are non-residents, are expected to arrive, primarily from the UK and US. While the “Detty December” phenomenon generates staggering revenues, including ₦54 billion in hotel bookings and ₦21 billion in short-let rentals, a strategic shift toward “Business Tourism” is emerging. Beyond seasonal splurges, UK-based Nigerian professionals are beginning to pivot from “Detty December” to “Deal December.”

The 2026 outlook emphasizes a search for “economic identity” through real investment in tangible assets such as infrastructure and manufacturing, rather than volatile portfolio inflows. This transition is supported by projected inward FDI from the UK reaching $1.2 billion and services exports hitting $1.5 billion by 2026. By transforming festive visits into cross-border business creation, the diaspora serves as a bridge for sustainable partnerships. As the Naira targets a stable range around ₦1,450-1512/$, this Diaspora Anchor must evolve from a source of holiday spending into a catalyst for long-term macroeconomic stability.

Economic segmentation

Nigeria’s festive economy increasingly mirrors its wider income structure: vibrant at the top, constrained at the base. In late 2024, “Detty December” generated an estimated $71.6 million in direct entertainment and hospitality revenue, primarily driven by diaspora inflows and a narrow affluent segment. Spending patterns—premium short-lets, high-end lounges, luxury transport- suggest a celebration economy concentrated in exclusive urban enclaves, particularly Lagos. Participation has become less universal and more contingent on foreign currency access and elite purchasing power, effectively turning a once mass-cultural moment into a gated anomaly.

This segmentation has macroeconomic consequences. The December surge creates a classic boom-and-bust cycle: a sharp liquidity spike followed by a January retrenchment. For domestic households already squeezed by inflation and weak real incomes, festive participation increasingly entails debt, deferred consumption, or outright exclusion. Meanwhile, the windfall largely concentrates in urban services, with limited spillovers to rural economies and tradable sectors. The result is a consumption spectacle that boosts short-term revenues without broad-based inclusion or durable multiplier effects. Unless linked to productivity, jobs, and broader geographic value chains, the festive boom risks reinforcing inequality, delivering premium memories for a few and a post-December financial hangover for the many.

Post-festive momentum: Creative economy projections and 2026 growth

Nigeria’s festive spending cycle has long produced a familiar macroeconomic pattern: a sharp consumption surge in Q4, followed by a Q1 slowdown as households retrench. Hospitality, entertainment, and retail volumes typically ease after December, weighing on short-term GDP momentum. Yet beneath this volatility, a more durable shift is underway. The creative economy—spanning film, music, fashion, digital content, events, and allied services—is increasingly emerging as a structural growth pillar rather than a seasonal anomaly.

Evidence points to scale. The creative economy is projected to contribute ₦7.23 trillion to the Nigerian economy by 2026, reflecting rising monetisation, export earnings, and platform-driven reach. Crucially, year-end hospitality booms now function as market accelerators: they aggregate global demand (especially diaspora), test pricing power, deepen supply chains, and crowd in private investment. These effects persist beyond December, supporting employment, skills formation, and IP-based revenues through the year.

This transition matters for the broader outlook. Nigeria’s 2026 macro framework projects real GDP growth of about 4.2%, based on a gradual shift away from consumption-led spikes toward more stable drivers, industry, technology, and services with productivity spillovers. If policy improves infrastructure, financing, and rights enforcement, festive demand can seed the creation of repeatable value. The implication is clear: post-festive slowdowns may soften, not because spending stays high, but because creative activity becomes embedded in a more diversified, resilient growth model for Nigeria. (BusinessDay)