2027: Kwankwaso, Atiku, Obi Join Forces Against Tinubu

In a move bound to inject life into opposition politics in Nigeria ahead of 2027 general elections, former governor of Kano State, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, yesterday resigned from the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).

The action is believed to pave the way for him to formally join the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and team up with major opposition figures to contest the forthcoming elections.

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who was the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP); former presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Peter Obi; former Senate President, David Mark and former governors of Osun and Rivers states, Rauf Aregbesola and Rotimi Amaechi are all in the ADC.

The development has raised the hope of the opposition who were almost giving up on the prospects of contesting the presidential elections in 2027.

Analysts posit that it is the lack of a similar alliance in 2023 that was responsible for the inability of the opposition figures to clinch the presidency, when Atiku, who flew the flag of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), polled 6,984,520 votes; Obi of the Labour Party, 6,101,533 votes and Kwankwaso of the NNPP, 1,496,687 votes.

Analysts contend that if the three had stood together under one platform and their votes combined, they could have made the then candidate of the ruling party, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who scored 8,794,726 to lose the election.

It is not clear if it is such permutations that have brought the three former presidential candidates under one banner this time around.

For almost three years, however, Nigeria has witnessed an unprecedented sweeping of the nucleus of all major and minor parties in the country by the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, leading to fears that the country may evolve into a one-party state.

From serving and former governors, key opposition figures in the National Assembly to influential politicians across the country, the APC has been attracting opposition elements in their numbers.

For the first time since 1999, Lagos, Kano, Kaduna and Rivers all have governors from the ruling party.

Added to that, the states with the larger resources, Lagos, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, and Delta are all under the APC.

The one that was yet to be captured entirely out of the states whose votes could alter equations was Kano, due to the inability of the ruling party to woo  Kwankwaso to its fold.

Kwankwaso is seen as the main figure behind Kano voting for the NNPP in 2023. Even with the defection of Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, politicals say all is not yet Uhuru for the ruling party as far as Kano is concerned.

There have been efforts to woo Kwankwaso to the ruling party, but insiders say the deal could not pull through as the then NNPP was said to set his conditions.

As negotiations lingered, the governor decided not to wait for his political godfather and ran to embrace the ruling party, which elicited fresh concerns for both the leaders of the ruling party in the state and the NNPP stalwarts.

For the APC members like Deputy President of Senate, Senator Barau Jibrin, it means forgoing their governorship ambition to accommodate the interest of the new entrant and for Kwankwaso, it meant starting from the foundation to look for new acolytes that would be true to him.

Kwankwaso’s resignation from the NNPP is a confirmation that the ruling party has not taken over Kano, as the development has triggered a fresh wave of political realignments in the Northwestern state and across Nigeria. It is setting the stage for what analysts describe as one of the most consequential opposition reconfigurations ahead of the 2027 general elections.

In Kano, it would give the APC leaders, including the governor, fresh concerns, which might reawaken the underlying differences between the various interest groups within the party.

How they can handle the challenge would depend on the level of sacrifice each can make as the prospect of losing the governorship position or even not delivering the state for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu stares them in the face.

Worse still, Kwankwaso’s imminent defection to the ADC is widely seen as a strategic move that could ginger the opposition politics in Africa’s most populous nation.

For Kwankwaso, a former Kano State governor, ex-minister, and presidential candidate, the decision marks a turning point, one that underscores both the limitations of his former platform and the possibilities offered by a broader coalition.

Henceforth, Kano would once again be the centre of attraction as it is set to rebound as the capital of opposition politics ahead of 2027.

Why I left NNPP – Kwankwaso

In a statement released yesterday, Kwankwaso announced his resignation from the NNPP with immediate effect, citing the need for “strategic realignment” in response to the evolving political environment.

“Considering the current trajectory of the nation’s political landscape, which calls for strategic realignment, I have found it necessary to identify with another political platform that offers the best opportunity to effect change,” he said.

His departure highlights a critical challenge faced by smaller political parties in Nigeria, which is the difficulty of translating regional strength into national electoral success.

Despite its impressive outing in Kano and pockets of support elsewhere in 2023, the NNPP struggled to match the organizational depth and national spread of dominant parties such as the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

His exit leaves the NNPP at a crossroads. As its most prominent figure, Kwankwaso’s departure creates a leadership vacuum that could weaken the party’s national standing.

The cautious response from party officials suggests that the NNPP is still assessing the situation.

The ADC option: Coalition over isolation

Kwankwaso’s decision to align with the ADC reflects a broader strategic calculation that prioritizes coalition-building over political isolation. The ADC has, in recent months, emerged as a rallying platform for opposition figures seeking to challenge the dominance of the ruling APC.

Its growing appeal lies in its perceived openness to alliances and its potential to serve as a unifying force among fragmented opposition blocs.

Prominent figures such as Atiku Abubakar and Rotimi Amaechi are already associated with this evolving coalition, lending it both credibility and national reach.

The move offers Kwankwaso multiple strategic advantages. It elevates him from the confines of a relatively small party into a broader political arena, enhances his negotiating power within a coalition framework, and positions him as a key stakeholder in any future electoral arrangement.

Perhaps most importantly, it allows him to remain relevant in a political environment where alliances often determine outcomes.

‘Kwankwaso willing to support whoever emerges candidate’

According to the spokesperson II of the KwankwasiyyaMovement, Mansur Kurugu, the ideological and strategic thinking behind their leader’s move is national interest and not personal candidacy ambition.

He said the decision to join the ADC is anchored on what he described as the “Save Nigeria Project”, a broad-based initiative aimed at addressing systemic challenges facing the country.

“The focus and the most important reason why we joined ADC is to make sure the government gets into what we call the Save Nigeria Project. This is a bigger project that is actually bigger than any individual’s interest,” he said.

Kurugu emphasized that the coalition is designed to provide Nigerians with a credible alternative capable of confronting the current administration and offering a different governance approach.

“The whole idea is to bring and give Nigerians an option…to create one strong opposition that can challenge the government,” he added.

On the question of whether Kwankwaso entered into any prior arrangements with ADC leaders, Kurugu acknowledged the realities of political negotiation while downplaying its centrality.

“We would never expect a politician of his calibre to join a party without a proper arrangement or framework… but that is not the primary reason,” he said.

Perhaps most revealing was his response to speculation about Kwankwaso’s ambition for the 2027 elections. Rather than assert a fixed position, Kurugu presented a flexible approach rooted in collective decision-making.

On the fears of their cohabitation under one umbrella, Kurugu said the fact that in 2019, the trio of Atiku, Obi and Kwankwaso worked under the same platform of PDP together is enough to prove that they can as well do so now in the interest of the country.

“If the calculation and arrangement require him to go for president, he will. If it requires him to serve as vice president, he will also serve.”

Kwankwaso’s meeting with Atiku, Aregbesola, others

Kwankwaso’s recent engagement with former Vice President Atiku Abubakar marks a significant development in the evolving opposition landscape. Both men share a long political history, having previously operated within the same party before parting ways.

Their renewed interaction suggests a willingness to set aside past rivalries in pursuit of a common objective.

Discussions between the two camps have reportedly focused on building a unified opposition front, negotiating power-sharing arrangements, and avoiding the fragmentation that has historically weakened opposition efforts in Nigeria.

He has also held strategic consultations with former Osun State governor, Rauf Aregbesola, a key figure within the ADC’s evolving structure.

Aregbesola’s influence in the South-West and his reputation for grassroots mobilization make him a critical player in the coalition’s expansion strategy.

Their discussions reportedly centered on strengthening party structures, ensuring internal cohesion, and developing mechanisms for managing competing ambitions within the party.

Kwankwaso joining us without precondition – ADC

The African Democratic Congress, ADC has declared that the former Kano State governor did not give the party any conditions before leaving the NNPP.

Speaking on the background of reports that the former NNPP leader gave conditions before joining the opposition party, the National Publicity Secretary of the ADC, Mallam Bolaji Abdullahi, denied such an arrangement.

He said Kwankwaso is joining the ADC to build the party and the opposition ranks.

On the vexed issue of the presidential ticket of the party, Abdullahi told Daily Trust that the ADC would provide a level playing field for all aspirants interested in contesting on its platform.

In a terse message to Daily Trust, the ADC spokesman said, “The former Kano State Governor, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, is joining the ADC without pre-condition. He’s coming in to contribute to building the party and supporting the work of the opposition. But ADC will provide a level playing ground for everyone.”

Kwankwaso’s defection to ADC could alter Nigeria’s political trajectory – Political analyst

Political analyst Kabiru Sufi believes Kwankwaso’s defection could significantly alter Nigeria’s political trajectory ahead of 2027.

“I think it is going to change the narrative because this time he has joined a bigger political platform that may likely lead the opposition,” he said.

According to Sufi, Kwankwaso’s alignment with figures such as Atiku, Obi and Amaechi could strengthen the opposition’s chances and create a more competitive political environment.

“This is going to be a real political contest between two major camps — the APC and the opposition bloc,” he added.

However, he cautioned that Kwankwaso’s influence within the ADC would depend on several factors, including the calibre of candidates fielded by the party and its ability to manage internal dynamics.

He said internal challenges within the party, including competing ambitions, could affect the former governor’s impact.

“There are a lot of factors that will determine how strong he will be this time around. If those challenges are managed, we may see a stronger Kwankwaso than before,” he said.

Kano as backbone of Kwankwaso’s influence

Kano state remains central to Kwankwaso’s political relevance. His resignation from the NNPP is expected to have significant implications for the party’s fortunes in the state, where the Kwankwasiyya Movement has maintained a strong grassroots presence.

Although it is difficult to give the exact number of Kwankwasiyya followers in Kano since it is more of an informal group than a political party, it is difficult to project the exact number of his supporters.

In the 2023 elections alone, Kwankwaso got close to one million votes in the state and analysts believe that despite parting ways with his former political godson, Governor Yusuf, he may still challenge the APC in the state.

The key question is whether his supporters will follow him to the ADC. If they do, the party could gain a substantial electoral advantage in the North-West.

Historically, Kano has been a decisive battleground in Nigerian politics. From the days of Aminu Kano’s PRP to the dominance of the PDP in the early 2000s, the state has often served as a bellwether for northern political sentiment. Kwankwaso’s ability to mobilize Kano voters could therefore tilt national calculations.

Kwankwaso’s move recalls earlier defections that reshaped Nigerian politics. In 2013, several PDP governors defected to the newly formed APC, a move that ultimately helped unseat the PDP in 2015.

Similarly, Atiku Abubakar’s repeated shifts between PDP and APC have often signaled broader realignments.

Defections in Nigeria are rarely about ideology; they are about survival, coalition-building, and access to structures capable of winning elections.

Kwankwaso’s defection fits this pattern, but with a twist, he is not merely joining a larger party, but attempting to transform a smaller one into a national force.

Implications for national politics

Kwankwaso’s defection accelerates the consolidation of opposition forces, intensifies political competition, and reshapes regional dynamics. It also raises the possibility of a two-bloc political system, with the ruling APC facing off against an ADC-led opposition coalition.

If managed well, analysts say this could create Nigeria’s most competitive election since 2015. If mismanaged, they posit it could fragment the opposition and hand APC another easy victory. (Daily trust)