APC consensus fuels tension, political realignments nationwide

• Ayade’s protest highlights concerns over alleged imposition
• Consensus model sparks friction as aspirants resist sidelining
• Zoning disputes, re-election bids complicate party calculations
• Govs’ adoption of consensus raises questions over compliance with Electoral Act
• Stakeholders criticise reward system, warn of rising discontent within APC
• Bamidele defends consensus, says dissent automatically triggers direct primaries
• Protests, court actions heighten concerns over electoral neutrality, due process
• Parties trade claims over INEC processes, deregistration threats, legal disputes
• ADC dismisses high-profile exits, insists preparations for convention on track

 

The APC’s growing reliance on consensus candidate selection is fuelling internal tensions nationwide, as allegations of imposition, sidelined aspirants and regional grievances expose fractures that could undermine party unity and electoral prospects ahead of 2027.

This comes as Nigeria’s political space faces rising strain through protests, party disputes and legal battles over INEC processes, intensifying concerns about institutional neutrality and deepening mistrust that could shape electoral credibility.

The recent outcry by former Cross River State Governor Ben Ayade over President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s directive that he withdraw from the race for the Cross River North Senatorial District seat in the 2027 general elections is a case in point.

Ayade, in an emotion-laden statement yesterday, revealed that he was invited to Abuja for a high-level consultation with the Presidency. He noted that during the meeting, it became apparent that the President preferred his withdrawal from the contest.

In a tone suggestive of disappointment, Ayade declared: “I yield to his request even as I pour tears of ill treatment and agony.”

Before the former governor, renowned for his verbose budget speeches, spoke out, there had been whispers of discontent over President Tinubu’s intervention in the processes leading to the APC’s straw polls.

Across the country, except in Lagos State, the implementation of the consensus method for candidate selection is unsettling the ruling party, with fears that the internal tensions could lead to anti-party activities during the main election.

There has also been marked reluctance among party chieftains to purchase the party’s expression of interest and nomination forms due to the high cost of the documents and concerns about likely voter preference for the APC in the election.

At a meeting with members of the Progressive Governors’ Forum at the Presidential Villa a fortnight ago, President Tinubu urged state governors to act fairly in conducting the party’s primaries, stressing that automatic tickets are undemocratic.

However, investigations by The Guardian show that the consensus approach adopted by many state governors has become a major source of friction in several states, particularly in senatorial zones with power-sharing arrangements among local government areas.

Similarly, the large number of senators and members of the State and National Assemblies seeking re-election has compounded the challenges facing state chapters and governors who recently joined the party.

Stakeholders argue that the party’s reward and recognition system leaves much to be desired. They note that while governors push for consensus, they often overlook provisions of the Electoral Act governing its adoption over direct primaries.

For instance, in his appeal to the President to reconsider the restriction on his senatorial ambition, Ayade highlighted his contributions to the growth and visibility of the APC in Cross River. He stated that he was the first state chief executive in the South-South to defect from thePeoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the APC.

The former governor also maintained that despite his contributions, he has remained sidelined for over three years without any federal appointment. He further noted that his federal constituency has produced a senator for only eight years in the current Fourth Republic.

Similarly, supporters of former Enugu State governor, Dr Chimaroke Nnamani, told The Guardian that President Tinubu has treated their leader unfairly. They pointed out that the Ebeano political group in the state was the first in the South-East to endorse Tinubu for the 2023 election.

However, as reservations about the consensus approach continue to grow, findings by The Guardian indicate that its application varies across geopolitical zones.

Bamidele defends consensus option, says objection triggers direct primaries

SENATE Majority Leader and Ekiti Central Senator, Michael Opeyemi Bamidele, defended the consensus provision in Nigeria’s electoral law, stating that it does not permit the imposition of candidates and that a single objection is sufficient to trigger full direct primaries.

Bamidele, who played a key role in the passage of the Electoral Act under which the All Progressives Congress is conducting its 2026 governorship primaries, spoke with journalists on the sidelines of the exercise and expressed satisfaction with the turnout of party officials.

“I could also see that virtually all the members of the National Working Committee of the party are here, other than the chairman and the national secretary. It means that they are according a lot of importance to this process and it’s just the way to go. I just think it’s the right thing to do,” he said.

Addressing concerns over the consensus option in the Electoral Act, Bamidele maintained that the provision leaves no room for backroom arrangements. He explained that even where a candidate enjoys a unanimous endorsement, the primary process must still take place.

“In any case, there will always be primaries. Even where you have only one aspirant, there will still be primaries because for someone who has been endorsed by consensus, everybody will still go to the ward, everybody will still participate in the primaries because there will still be the need to do an endorsement — open endorsement at the ward level. So there’s nothing that can be done under the table, whether you are doing direct primaries or you are doing consensus,” he stated.

The senator further explained that the legislature removed the indirect primaries model, in which a smaller group of delegates determined outcomes, to prevent elite capture of the process.

“We didn’t think a few people in the name of delegates should take decisions on behalf of the people,” he said.

Responding to concerns about controversies surrounding consensus arrangements in Ekiti politics, Bamidele acknowledged that outcomes have varied but cited his own experience as an example of how the process can function without coercion.

He disclosed that he had submitted his expression of interest and nomination forms and that no challenger had emerged from his district.

“Stakeholders within my central district came to me to express satisfaction about the quality of representation that I’ve been able to give by the grace of God. And all of them said none of us is running against you. I didn’t have to lobby for it. I didn’t have to do anything to discourage that. It’s just that no other person has obtained the form. And it is not by any form of coercion,” he explained.

Bamidele, however, noted that his experience may not reflect conditions across the state, adding that other senatorial districts in Ekiti could record different outcomes.

“This does not mean that the same thing will happen in all three central districts in Ekiti. But again, in the event that anyone disagrees with a consensus arrangement, the law is that there must be primaries.

So anyone who wants to contest will still be given a chance to contest. A consensus is only a suggestion, which is usually a suggestion made by stakeholders within the party. But where you have anyone who is opposed to it, you just have to go to parliament,” he stated.

Political tensions rise as protests, party disputes test electoral system

NIGERIA’S political space continues to face rising strain as protests, party disputes and legal battles over INEC processes intensify concerns about institutional neutrality, exposing deepening mistrust and contestation that could shape electoral credibility ahead of the general elections.

Tension rose yesterday at the Federal High Court in Abuja as scores of demonstrators protested alleged interference in the judiciary and the Independent National Electoral Commission by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The protesters, operating under the banner of Concerned Northern Nigeria Stakeholders, marched to the court entrance in Wuse, chanting solidarity songs and displaying placards bearing messages such as “No Opposition, No Election,” “Tinubu, Let Our Democracy Breathe,” and “AGF Must Be Neutral.”

Security operatives, including officers of the Department of State Services, barricaded the entrance and prevented the demonstrators from gaining access to the court complex.

Speaking with journalists, the group’s leader, Banki Sharrif, expressed concern over what he described as threats to judicial independence and democratic institutions, accusing the Federal Government of undermining due process.

He said, “We call on President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to immediately cease all forms of interference, overt or covert, with the judiciary. Courts must never be reduced to instruments of political engineering. The moment justice is manipulated, the nation itself is placed on trial.”

ALSO, the Accord Party has dismissed claims that it faces deregistration by the Independent National Electoral Commission, stating that it meets all constitutional requirements to remain a registered political party in Nigeria.

The party’s response follows reports that it was among those targeted in a suit allegedly backed by the Attorney General of the Federation.

Reacting yesterday, the National Publicity Secretary of the party, Joseph Omorogbe, described the reports as the product of “ignorance or political mischief.”

He explained that, under Section 225A of the 1999 Constitution (as amended), a political party can only be deregistered if it fails to win at least one seat in councillorship, state, or National Assembly elections, or fails to secure the minimum required votes in presidential or governorship polls.

According to him, the Accord Party has met these conditions, noting that it has won seats in Jigawa State and previously secured a seat in the Imo State House of Assembly, although it was later nullified by a tribunal.

ADC downplays Obi, Kwankwaso exit, affirms convention plans

IN a related development, the Temitope Ogah-led National Executive Committee (NEC) of the African Democratic Congress has dismissed concerns over the exit of former Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi, and former Kano State governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso, stating that the development will not disrupt its preparations for an upcoming national convention or its engagement with the Independent National Electoral Commission.

The NEC said it is intensifying engagement with INEC following the submission of a formal communication outlining the party’s activities and proposed convention.

It also disclosed plans to consult with the David Mark-led National Working Committee upon receiving INEC’s response, as part of efforts to advance the process.

Speaking yesterday, NEC spokesman Don Norman Obinna, who also serves as ADC chairman in Abia State, said the situation had been exaggerated in public discourse. He maintained that the party remains focused on internal consolidation, legal compliance and producing a credible candidate for future elections.

Obinna added that the ADC’s political framework allows for broad participation, noting that the emergence of multiple aspirants is a natural phase in the build-up to primaries, after which a consensus candidate would emerge to represent the party.

ADA to appeal court ruling ordering INEC to register NDC

STILL on the opposition, Umar Ardo, a founding leader of the All Democratic Alliance (ADA), has said the association will appeal the judgment of the Federal High Court in Lokoja, which directed the Independent National Electoral Commission to register the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC).

ADA was among eight pre-qualified associations cleared by INEC in October 2025 for party registration after submitting the required information and documentation on the commission’s website.

However, on February 5, 2026, INEC chairman, Joash Amupitan, stated that “only two” of the eight associations “qualified for final assessment and verification of due compliance with the Constitution and the Electoral Act.”

Despite not being part of the pre-qualified associations, the NDC was subsequently registered by INEC.

Amupitan said the decision followed an order of the Federal High Court in Lokoja.

Speaking in an interview, Ardo alleged that INEC deviated from its procedures in registering the NDC. He argued that the party was not part of the 2025 screening process and called on INEC to explain why it registered the party through a court order.
Dickson releases INEC letter to counter claims on NDC registration

Senator Seriake Dickson, representing Bayelsa West and national leader of the Nigeria Democratic Congress, has released a response letter from the Independent National Electoral Commission acknowledging the party’s application for registration in 2017.

The development follows criticism of INEC by Umar Ardo, a founding leader of the All Democratic Alliance, who accused the commission of deviating from its procedures in registering the NDC.

In an interview with DCL Hausa posted on YouTube yesterday, Ardo criticised INEC’s decision, alleging that the NDC did not submit a formal application for registration and did not participate in the screening of 171 associations conducted in 2025.

Responding to the claims, Dickson shared INEC’s reply letter, dated March 2017 and addressed to the party’s protem chairman, in which the commission acknowledged receipt of the NDC’s application.

In an accompanying statement, Dickson said the letter shows that the NDC initiated its registration process in 2017, adding that the process was approved by INEC but later stalled.

ANALYSIS: How APC consensus drive is fuelling discontent from S’West to North

The APC’s emerging approach to candidate selection ahead of the 2027 elections is reshaping internal dynamics, as negotiations, alignments and quiet contestations redefine party cohesion across regions.

In the South-West, the APC’s increasing reliance on consensus arrangements for the 2027 elections is triggering tensions. Although designed to manage internal competition, the consensus option is now breeding resentment, regional agitation and elite rivalry.

In Oyo State, the cracks are most visible. The move by party leaders to project Senator Sharafadeen Alli as a consensus governorship candidate has unsettled other aspirants, particularly former Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, who has rejected the arrangement.

The disagreement goes beyond personal ambition; it reflects a deeper legitimacy crisis within the party over who determines candidates and how such decisions are reached.

More critically, agitation from the Oke-Ogun axis has compounded the situation. Leaders from the zone argue that Oyo’s power rotation has consistently sidelined them and insist that 2027 should be their turn. Any consensus that ignores this demand risks alienating a significant voting bloc.

The Oyo crisis, therefore, reflects a convergence of competing ambitions, zoning expectations and resistance to perceived imposition.

In Ogun State, the situation appears calmer but remains fragile. The endorsement of Senator Olamilekan Adeola (Yayi) as a consensus candidate, backed by Governor Dapo Abiodun and other stakeholders, suggests a coordinated front.

However, beneath this alignment are unresolved rivalries, particularly between Abiodun and former governor Gbenga Daniel over political influence and control of party structures.

Tensions are also evident around the Ogun East senatorial ticket, where competing interests and grievances among aspirants could disrupt the fragile balance. What appears as unity is largely a product of elite negotiation rather than organic agreement, leaving room for future disputes.

The consensus arrangement has further pitted Governor Abiodun against Senator Daniel. While the governor claims to have been endorsed as the party’s consensus candidate for Ogun East in 2027, the incumbent senator has proceeded to purchase nomination forms for the same seat.

Findings also indicate that some governorship aspirants are quietly grumbling, arguing that the consensus approach is depriving them of the opportunity to participate.

Lagos presents a more controlled scenario. While there is a possible consensus in favour of Deputy Governor Obafemi Hamzat, the state’s complex political structure has kept dissent largely beneath the surface. Several aspirants are quietly positioning themselves, and not all stakeholders support the idea of a pre-arranged succession.

The relative silence in Lagos reflects strong party discipline and entrenched political structures, but it also masks underlying discontent. Such suppressed grievances have historically manifested in subtle forms, including protest votes or reduced campaign enthusiasm.

A party member, who requested anonymity, said many APC members in Lagos feel ostracised from the selection process.

“I’ve no grouse against Hamzat, but at least allow the process to be free, fair and credible through direct primaries,” he said.

He dismissed concerns about cost, adding: “Since the Electoral Act 2026 provides for it, let us abide by the rules.”

In Ekiti, consensus is colliding directly with zoning expectations. There has been sustained agitation for power to shift to the South Senatorial District ahead of the 2026 governorship election. However, the prominence of incumbent Governor Biodun Oyebanji within the APC’s calculations disrupts that expectation.

For many stakeholders in the South, any consensus that sidelines their demand is seen as a violation of an unwritten rotational understanding, heightening the risk of internal fragmentation.

Osun State reflects a slightly different dynamic. Although the party has produced a candidate through its internal processes, the influence of consensus thinking remains evident in how aspirants interpret fairness within the system. The build-up to the primary exposed divisions that remain unresolved, leaving the party vulnerable in a highly competitive political environment.

Across the region, a pattern is emerging. The APC’s consensus strategy, intended to avoid divisive primaries and reduce campaign costs, is instead shifting conflict to backroom negotiations where not all interests are adequately represented. Aspirants who feel excluded are increasingly willing to challenge outcomes, while regional blocs are asserting their claims more forcefully.

This has triggered a broader debate within the party over whether consensus reflects genuine agreement or a subtle form of imposition. The consequences are becoming evident: alienated aspirants, deepening regional grievances and fragile alliances held together more by expediency than trust.

South-East: Unsettling a suspect platform

Save for Abia State, where the consensus arrangement continues to face opposition, the idea appears to have taken hold in the other four states—Enugu, Imo, Anambra and Ebonyi.

In Abia, the contest is between the senator representing Abia North, Orji Uzo Kalu, and the Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Benjamin Kalu, over who leads the party. The dispute, which began some weeks ago, has prevented the consensus arrangement from taking effect.

Orji maintains that, as a former governor, he should preside over meetings on the consensus arrangement, a position resisted by Benjamin, who argues that doing so would sideline him given his current office.

There are indications that the party may resort to direct primaries following the failure of consensus.

In the other four states, however, the party has adopted the consensus arrangement. The governors of Imo, Enugu and Ebonyi States have obtained the nomination and expression of interest forms and are issuing them to party stalwarts after consultations with key stakeholders in the affected areas.

Governor Francis Nwifuru of Ebonyi State, after a stakeholders’ meeting last week, announced the names of successful contenders amid muted complaints over the fourth-term ambition of Hon Iduma Igariwey Enwo, in line with agreements reached by party leaders.

In Edda Local Government Area, following its name change from Afikpo, representation of the federal constituency has rotated among its people. Former Chairman of Edda Local Council, Barrister Eni Uduma Chima, is being projected by his people to take their turn in 2027.

In Enugu, Governor Peter Mbah has begun issuing forms for State and National Assembly candidates, while remaining the sole governorship aspirant in the party.

Imo State Governor Hope Uzodimma, who is serving his final term, is being positioned for the Senate in line with the presidential directive that outgoing governors should contest elections.

However, as he is expected to remain in office until January 14, 2028, and the senatorial election is scheduled for next year, Uzodimma is said to have mounted pressure on his female deputy to resign so he can appoint a successor deemed capable of completing his tenure in his absence. This development has unsettled the state’s political climate. The deputy has yet to resign.

A party stalwart, Jerry Ugwu, told The Guardian that “democracy has never been decided by a few stakeholders who never sought the consent of the majority,” adding that if the consensus arrangement succeeds, it would mean the end of democracy.

“Those with aspirations cannot ventilate them if they don’t have a godfather speaking for them. I thought we had killed godfatherism in politics? What the APC has done is like resurrecting a system that did not work for our people. We cannot allow this. There are several other platforms and any serious-minded politician can make his way through them.”

Another contributor, Ikechukwu Nwite, argued that the consensus arrangement has shut out party members who worked to strengthen the party with a view to contesting elections.

He added, “Handpicking people by one man or two is like creating a new wave of despots in politics. The APC believe that they can do anything, but we are going to shock them. We will use the coming elections to demonstrate that there is power in the people. The so-called consensus is nothing other than imposition, which we will resist.”

Another APC stalwart from Enugu State, John Ugwueze, said that original members of the party have been pushed to the background since Governor Peter Mbah joined. He added: “Having been denied opportunity at the congress, we will make our statement if, at the end of the day, we are not allowed to be part of those deciding who gets the tickets of the party.

“Allowing for primaries should have given the members a sense of belonging.”

However, former Senate President Anyim Pius Anyim, whose son, Chisom, has benefited from the arrangement, described the practice as “the best method for party cohesion and governance.”

South-South: Rivers of quiet manoeuvres, shifting loyalties

On the surface, a striking calm pervades the political landscape in Rivers State. The so-called rainbow coalition led by the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, across both the PDP and APC camps, has maintained an unusual silence ahead of the 2027 general elections.

The quiet may stem from a directive from the Presidency affirming that APC state governors are in charge of their states. It was gathered that individuals within the “rainbow coalition” are pushing for direct primaries, a proposal yet to receive the endorsement of Governor Siminalayi Fubara.

At the same time, loyalists of the governor—commonly referred to as his backbones—including former Obio/Akpor Local Government chairman Chijioke Ihunwo and former Chief of Staff Edison Ehie, are reportedly securing nomination forms. There are also indications that some political elders aligned with Fubara have obtained expression of interest and nomination forms on his behalf, although the governor has not publicly confirmed this.

The calm contrasts with an earlier assertion by Wike that politics in the state would intensify from the beginning of the year. His appeal to influential figures such as Ateke Tom and Asari Dokubo to refrain from political involvement underscores the sensitivity of the current situation.

Observers note that a growing preference for consensus arrangements in some quarters is reshaping the state’s democratic process. Yet preparations for the elections remain slow and largely uneventful, with many aspirants either withholding their ambitions or awaiting endorsements from established power blocs.

So far, only two governorship nomination forms have reportedly been sold by the APC in Rivers State. A familiar contender, Tonye Cole, is among the early aspirants, while another form is said to have been purchased by stakeholders on behalf of Fubara, further fuelling speculation about cross-party calculations.

There is little activity at the legislative level, and the overall atmosphere remains subdued—an uncommon calm for a politically active, oil-rich state.

While Wike retains considerable influence at the federal level, his dominance within Rivers politics appears to be weakening. Although he still commands structures within local government and the State Assembly, Fubara’s steady consolidation, bolstered by loyalists entering the race, could narrow Wike’s local leverage.

Unverified claims of succession planning have also emerged, including suggestions that Wike may be positioning allies such as Kingsley Chinda for the governorship, potentially paving the way for his son, Jordan Wike, to contest the Obio/Akpor federal constituency seat. Another ally, Marcus Nle-Eji, has also been mentioned in speculative scenarios. None of these claims has been officially confirmed.

There is, however, growing resistance to perceived political monopolies. A resident, Chibuchu Amadi, warned against what he described as attempts to entrench dynastic politics, insisting that leadership positions should remain open and competitive.

Similarly, the Rivers State chairman of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Chukwudi Dimkpa, dismissed claims that any individual could unilaterally determine the state’s leadership, reiterating the party’s commitment to accountability, economic opportunity, social justice and inclusive governance.

Providing historical context on why Fubara should remain in control of the state, political analyst Opunabo Inkotari noted that since Nigeria’s return to democratic rule in 1999, governors have largely controlled party structures in their states, a development he described as consistent with prevailing political realities.

He argued that Governor Fubara’s “organic support base,” coupled with public sympathy arising from his political challenges, could translate into an electoral advantage should he seek re-election.

Inkotari highlighted the dual implications of this trend: while it may reduce the financial burden of elections, it risks sidelining popular candidates in favour of elite-driven choices, potentially undermining democratic ideals.

North: Significant nothing

The situation in the North contrasts sharply with that of four years ago, when the region played a leading role in the APC presidential campaign. There has been a low demand for APC forms, while state governors in the party are using the opportunity to reward their loyalists.

In Borno State, stakeholders acted decisively to ensure that alleged moves against their senator did not succeed.

Amid suspicions of attempts to supplant Senator Ali Ndume, APC stakeholders in Borno South mobilised N40 million to “endorse and support” his re-election in the 2027 general elections.

The stakeholders said the N40 million would enable Ndume to purchase his senatorial nomination form ahead of the election in the district, which comprises nine local government areas of the state.

Led by Adamu Yamta, the stakeholders paid a courtesy visit to the Borno State APC Chairman, Bello Ayuba, and said: “We formally inform you today of our decision and deliver our resolve to obtain the form for the senator to be reelected and represent us at the National Assembly for the four years.”

Addressing the stakeholders yesterday in Maiduguri, Yamta said: “I commend Governor Babagana Zulum for his selfless, people-oriented leadership and an inclusive governance across the state.” (Guardian)