Nigeria Eurobonds rally as yields sink below 8% in historic first

The move marks a particularly notable milestone for the country’s 2051 notes, which were issued in 2021 at a coupon of 8.25 percent and had never traded below the 8 percent yield threshold until now. The breakthrough underscores the strength of demand for Nigeria’s external debt even as global borrowing costs remain elevated.

The rally comes against the backdrop of rising US Treasury yields, a dynamic that typically pressures emerging-market debt. Instead, Nigeria’s bonds have decoupled from that trend, suggesting investors are increasingly pricing in improved macroeconomic stability, reform momentum and more recently the rally in oil prices following the U.S.-Iran war.

“The investors see Nigeria as an oil play very far away from Iran,” a market analyst told BusinessDay.

Oil prices fell on Wednesday as markets reacted to growing signs of de-escalation between the United States and Iran, but Nigeria’s crude grade remains well above the government’s budget benchmark having rallied for the most part of the crisis.

Brent crude fell 8.58 percent to $100.4 per barrel as of 11:40 am West Africa Time (WAT), while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped 9.82 percent to $92.23.

Nigeria’s relatively high carry has also continued to attract yield-seeking investors in a market where risk appetite has proven resilient.

The shift lower in yields could ease external financing conditions for the government, potentially lowering the cost of future Eurobond issuance. It also reflects a broader re-rating of Nigerian risk as policymakers pursue reforms aimed at stabilizing the currency and boosting investor confidence.(BusinessDay)