The WhatsApp groups shaping Nigeria’s 2027 election

Nigeria’s political battles have traditionally played out in public.

The crowds at campaign rallies, the noise of party convoys, the television interviews and the newspaper front pages have long been symbols of electoral influence. For decades, winning elections meant controlling physical spaces where voters gathered and political messages were delivered.

Ahead of the 2027 election, that contest is shifting. The new battleground is quieter, more private and harder to see.

It sits inside thousands of WhatsApp groups where Nigerians discuss politics, share information and increasingly form opinions about candidates, parties and national issues.

The most important political conversations of the next election may not happen on a campaign stage. They may happen in family groups, community networks, religious chats and private broadcast lists where a message can travel from one trusted contact to hundreds of people within minutes.

Nigeria’s election information system is moving from traditional gatekeepers to digital networks. And WhatsApp is at the centre of that transformation.

According to SBM Intelligence’s report on AI, misinformation and Nigeria’s 2027 elections, 52.1 percent of Nigerians now rely on social media platforms including WhatsApp, Facebook, X and TikTok as their primary source of political information. Television accounts for 23.8 percent, while newspapers account for just 1.7 percent.

The numbers reveal a major change in how political influence works. The question for political actors is no longer only how many people attend a rally. It is how many phones receive the message.

The rise of the WhatsApp political network

WhatsApp’s influence comes from something other platforms struggle to replicate: trust.

A political message shared by an unknown account online may be ignored. The same message forwarded by a friend, family member, or respected community member carries a different weight. The messenger becomes part of the message.

This makes WhatsApp especially powerful in a country where social relationships remain central to how people interpret information.

Political campaigns increasingly understand this. Instead of relying only on speeches and advertisements, parties and political actors can build networks of digital distributors who push messages directly into communities.

The SBM report identifies WhatsApp broadcast group coordinators as part of Nigeria’s emerging political information ecosystem, alongside social media operatives, influencers, and alternative online platforms.

These networks represent a new form of political infrastructure. A person managing dozens of active groups may not have a public profile, but they can influence thousands of voters every day.

Why WhatsApp matters more than television

For generations, television shaped Nigeria’s political conversation.

Politicians needed access to broadcasters. Newspapers determined which issues gained attention. Journalists acted as filters between political actors and voters. The internet has changed that relationship.

Today, political information can move directly from campaigns to citizens without passing through traditional media. This is particularly important among younger voters.

The report notes that among Nigerians aged 18–29, 68.2 percent rely on social media for election news, showing how digital platforms have become central to reaching the country’s largest demographic group.

The change is not simply about technology. It is about speed. A campaign message that once required a press conference can now become a nationwide conversation before traditional media has time to respond.

The hidden economy behind political influence

Behind the growth of WhatsApp politics is a new industry.

Political communication is increasingly involving digital strategists, influencers, online publishers, and network managers who understand how information spreads online.

The SBM report describes actors such as “data boys” , covert social media operatives who work to promote political figures,  and influencers who amplify campaign messages.

This creates a marketplace where attention has become a political asset. The ability to mobilise online communities, shape narratives, and influence conversations is becoming as valuable as traditional campaign structures.

The next generation of political organisers may not be those who can fill stadiums. They may be those who can manage thousands of conversations happening at once.

The problem with private political conversations

The same qualities that make WhatsApp powerful also make it difficult to monitor.

Unlike public platforms where misinformation can be challenged openly, WhatsApp operates through private networks.

A false claim can spread through multiple groups before journalists, fact-checkers, or authorities become aware of it.

The report highlights that WhatsApp has no AI detection capability, creating a major challenge as artificial intelligence makes it easier to create convincing fake content.

This becomes even more complicated because misinformation does not need to be perfectly convincing. It only needs to create uncertainty.

The voice note that changes everything

One of the biggest risks for the 2027 election may come through one of WhatsApp’s simplest features. The voice note.

Voice messages feel personal. They appear direct. They often create a sense that someone inside the system is sharing information.

That makes them politically powerful.

An AI-generated voice message pretending to come from a presidential candidate, government official, or religious leader could spread quickly through networks built on trust.

The SBM report points to Nigeria’s own warning signs, including the circulation of an AI-generated voice note involving President Bola Tinubu in 2026. The technology needed to create convincing political audio is already available.

The challenge is not only that fake information can spread. It is that genuine information may also become easier to dismiss.

Once voters know deepfakes exist, real evidence can be challenged as fake,  a problem researchers describe as the “liar’s dividend.”

The battle for Nigeria’s next election may be a battle for trust

The biggest impact of WhatsApp-driven misinformation may not be changing millions of votes. It may be changing how voters decide what to believe.

The SBM report argues that AI misinformation is more likely to damage trust in institutions and information systems than directly shift electoral choices.

That makes the 2027 election different from previous contests. Political parties will compete not only for votes but for control over the stories voters hear, the information they trust, and the explanations they accept.

The rally will still matter. The billboard will still exist.

But the most important political conversation may happen somewhere far less visible.

Inside the WhatsApp groups shaping Nigeria’s next election. (BusinessDay)