Ruto’s running mate dilemma in Kenya: Keep Kindiki or cut him loose?

When Professor Kithure Kindiki was sworn in as Kenya’s deputy president in November 2024, William Ruto said he had finally found a deputy who could help deliver the government’s promises.

“Kindiki is a patriot whose dedication to cohesion, national unity and inclusivity is beyond reproach,” Ruto said. “He is an effective champion of peace and security across our country, and a loyal steward of the bottom-up economic agenda.”

Yet that confidence now seems to have been premature.

Kindiki’s swearing ceremony had come just 16 days after the impeachment of Rigathi Gachagua, whose fallout with the president saw Ruto’s allies accuse him of undermining the administration, fuelling regional divisions and plotting his own 2027 presidential bid.

By replacing Gachagua with another leader from the vote-rich Mt Kenya region, Ruto had hoped to achieve two goals: consign his former deputy to political irrelevance and keep the region firmly behind the ruling Kenya Kwanza coalition.

Twenty months on, neither objective has materialised. Instead, Gachagua has staged an unlikely political comeback while Ruto’s grip on the vote-rich Mt Kenya region has steadily weakened, leaving the president with one of the defining strategic dilemmas of his re-election campaign.

The Gachagua resurgence and UDA’s regional slump

Rather than retreating to his Nyeri County home after his impeachment, Gachagua immediately launched an aggressive political offensive across Mt Kenya, recasting his removal as a betrayal of the region by the Ruto administration.

That message appears to be resonating. In last month’s Ol Kalou by-election, voters handed the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) a bruising defeat, reinforcing perceptions that support for the president is slipping in one of Kenya’s most influential voting blocs.

The strategy by President Ruto and his allies to sideline Gachagua from Kenya’s 2027 general election politics has collapsed…

The political fallout has extended beyond the ballot box. Two governors have already abandoned UDA for Gachagua’s Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP), while party insiders say more governors and lawmakers are expected to defect before the 2027 election, further strengthening the former deputy president’s hand.

“The strategy by President Ruto and his allies to sideline Gachagua from Kenya’s 2027 general election politics has collapsed, mounting further pressure on the president and his remaining supporters in Mt Kenya,” says political analyst John Charo.

Ruto’s second objective has also proved elusive. By replacing Gachagua with Kindiki, the president hoped to contain the political fallout and retain Mt Kenya’s backing. Instead, Kindiki has struggled to rally voters behind the president as Gachagua’s influence has continued to grow.

“There is growing concern that Ruto might lose the support of this vote-rich region in the upcoming election, narrowing his re-election prospects even further,” says another analyst, George Githinji.

The Mudavadi factor

Speculation over Kindiki’s political future intensified after local media reported that some of his key responsibilities had been quietly reassigned to Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, whose influence within Ruto’s inner circle has grown steadily since his return to government. Reports about the apparent reassignment of duties have fuelled claims that President Ruto is preparing the ground to replace his deputy.

Kindiki quickly dismissed the reports as false, insisting his mandate remained intact. Dennis Itumbi, the head of creative and special projects in the presidency, also defended Kindiki, accusing sections of the media of manufacturing stories to portray the government in a negative light.

Whether the reports are true or not, they underscore a growing political reality: Ruto’s choice of running mate could make or break his bid for a second term.

“The crushing defeat the ruling party suffered in the Ol Kalou by-election demonstrates that Mt Kenya has aligned with Gachagua,” Charo tells The Africa Report. “Consequently, the Orange Democratic Movement [ODM] is now demanding the running mate position as an irreducible condition in exchange for its support for President Ruto’s re-election.”

If Ruto drops Kindiki, he risks alienating Mt Kenya entirely

Sources within the Kenya Kwanza coalition, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the discussions, say they believe Ruto will ultimately retain Kindiki as his running mate. The strategy is that keeping him on the ticket could split Mt Kenya and help the president retain enough support there to secure a second term.

“He needs to secure at least 30% or more of the Mt Kenya vote and neutralise Gachagua’s narrative that he has abandoned the region. That is why he will stick with Kindiki to the end,” a Kenya Kwanza official tells The Africa Report.

The thinking within the coalition is that Ruto has not written off Mt Kenya. By standing behind Kindiki, his allies believe the president can persuade a significant bloc of voters to back him on the strength of his development record and his decision to retain a deputy from the region despite mounting political pressure.

A running mate from Western Kenya?

Public Service Cabinet Secretary Geoffrey Ruku shared similar sentiments, insisting Kindiki will remain Ruto’s running mate in 2027 and dismissing speculation that the deputy president could be replaced.

“The undermining of Prof Kithure Kindiki must stop. Nobody will strip Mt Kenya East of the deputy president position. The seat will remain with Prof Kithure Kindiki until 2032,” Ruku said during an interview with a local TV station.

Ruku also accused his cabinet colleague, Cooperatives Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya, of using ODM allies to campaign for the deputy presidency at Kindiki’s expense.

But figures within ODM see the political equation very differently. Party insiders believe Ruto will eventually turn to Oparanya as his running mate, arguing that keeping the deputy presidency in Mt Kenya would be an electoral gamble at a time when the region appears to be drifting towards Gachagua and the opposition.

“Ruto will eventually pick a running mate from Western Kenya because the region is ready to rally behind him,” an ODM official tells The Africa Report, speaking on condition of anonymity because he is not authorised to speak on behalf of the party. “Putting Oparanya on the ticket would significantly boost turnout, especially now that much of Mt Kenya has shifted towards the opposition.”

Kindiki recalibrates as opposition threat looms

Caught between Gachagua’s resurgence and growing pressure from ODM, Kindiki has stepped up his political outreach in Mt Kenya East, making frequent visits to his home region in a bid to shore up support and prevent voters from drifting towards the opposition.

Speaking at a recent rally in his Meru County stronghold, the deputy president pushed back against ODM’s calls for the running mate slot, signalling that he has no intention of giving way.

“I know our government has expanded because the likes of Oparanya have joined us. However, we are not leaving. We will fight it out with them because this is our government too,” Kindiki said.

Allies of the deputy president insist he is determined to defend both his position and Mt Kenya’s claim to the office, ruling out any suggestion that he would step aside.

Charo argues that removing Kindiki at this stage would be politically difficult. Unlike Gachagua, he says, the deputy president enjoys broad respect among lawmakers and the wider public.

“Since assuming office, Kindiki has performed exceptionally well by focusing squarely on the government’s development agenda and deliberately avoiding the divisive politics that brought down Gachagua,” Charo says.

The Kindiki gamble

Recent opinion polls consistently rank Kindiki among Kenya’s most popular political figures. But some of Ruto’s allies worry that his national appeal is not translating into electoral gains in Mt Kenya, where Gachagua continues to consolidate support.

That leaves Ruto with an unenviable choice. Whether Kindiki remains on the ticket may ultimately depend on who the United Opposition picks as its presidential candidate and whether the coalition can stay united.

“If the united opposition produces a presidential candidate from the Western region, Ruto might be forced to replace Kindiki with Oparanya to counter the threat,” says Githinji. However, he adds, “if the opposition fails to unite behind a single candidate, Ruto will most likely retain Kindiki as his running mate, since a fragmented opposition will not pose a major challenge”.

For both Githinji and fellow analyst Charo, there is no risk-free option.

“If Ruto drops Kindiki, he risks alienating Mt Kenya entirely, including Kindiki’s base in Mt Kenya East. If he keeps him, he could struggle to regain support in Mt Kenya while losing momentum in Western Kenya, where many voters expect one of their own on the ticket,” Githinji says. (The Africa Report)