NNPC’s fuel revenue plunges 78% amid Dangote-led price war

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) has seen its revenue from petroleum products plummet by 77.58% in 2025 to ₦2.17trn, marking its lowest level in at least four years, according to data compiled by The Africa Report. 

This steep decline is the fallout from a fierce price war sparked by the entry of the Dangote refinery and full market deregulation.

In its earnings release last week, NNPC said total revenue fell 24% to ₦34.5trn, citing “lower crude oil prices and reduced white product volumes following market deregulation in 2024.” Profit after tax still rose 33% to ₦7.2trn, up from ₦5.4trn in 2024.

From NNPC dominance to Dangote disruption

For years, NNPC was the undisputed market leader. It had the largest network of filling stations, and its control over supply and pricing drew dealers and consumers. The four state-owned refineries were in disrepair, so the country imported all its fuel. NNPC was the only petrol importer for several years, and it resold to other marketers below market cost to keep pump prices down.

That model broke down when the $20bn, 650,000-barrels-per-day Dangote refinery began producing petrol in September 2024. Subsidies were removed, the market was deregulated, imports fell, and competition intensified across the value chain.

“NNPC was the sole importer before now, and everybody was buying from them,” says Adetunji Oyebanji, founder of Energy Advisory and Services Limited. “They used to have an advantage because they would supply themselves before supplying others. If there was a shortage, they gave themselves preference.”

Oyebanji, who retired as CEO of 11Plc (formerly Mobil Oil Nigeria) in March after more than 17 years at the helm, notes that 2024 was the last year NNPC brought in most of the products consumed in the country.

“Once Dangote refinery started producing petrol later that year, it became the main source of products,” he says.

“Obviously, NNPC revenue from trading has shifted; they are now more like an end-seller, selling through their network. This is unlike before when they were a wholesaler, importing, selling, and making a margin,” he adds.

Fierce price war

President Bola Tinubu‘s administration first moved to fully deregulate the petrol market in May 2023, when it removed subsidies and liberalised the foreign exchange market. Full deregulation came in September 2024, when Dangote began producing petrol. Within four months, a price war had erupted, fuelled by repeated changes to pump prices. It escalated when the Dangote refinery signed supply agreements with MRS Oil Nigeria and other marketers.

MRS, controlled by Sayyu Dantata, the half-brother of Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, was the first fuel retailer to sign a supply agreement with the refinery.

“There is no doubt about it,” Oyebanji says of the price war’s effect on NNPC’s fuel revenue and margins. “If competitors can now undercut the NNPC, it will lose some market share. If you looked at MRS’s figures for the same period, you would see that they went up significantly.”

NNPC revenue from trading has shifted; they are now more like an end-seller, selling through their network. This is unlike before when they were a wholesaler, importing, selling, and making a margin

MRS’s revenue more than doubled to ₦694.27bn in 2025, up from ₦312.23bn the previous year.

On 5 January 2026, The Africa Report reported that the company had undercut NNPC by a wide margin and broadened its appeal in a brutal battle for market share. In December, MRS had slashed its petrol price to ₦739 per litre, and NNPC followed suit, reducing its price to around ₦820-₦840, depending on the location.

Oyebanji says the shake-up raises a more difficult question about how the market is structured. “The question is: is it fair competition, or do some people have an advantage?” he asks.

Fuel marketers count the cost

The disruption has not only affected NNPC. Marketers whose businesses were built over years on imported products have suffered heavy losses.

TotalEnergies Marketing Nigeria, one of the country’s largest fuel marketers, recorded a net loss of ₦13.85bn in 2025 as revenue fell 26% to ₦767.63bn. It was the Lagos-listed company’s first loss since at least 2005, after a profit after tax of ₦27.49bn in 2024. For the first time in at least 21 years, shareholders did not receive a dividend in 2025.

“The continued price war and persistent market instability driven by incessant price fluctuations continued to define the operating environment,” chairman Jean-Phillippe Torres wrote in the annual report. He called the Dangote refinery “the game changer in the downstream sector,” saying, “these dynamics have resulted in significant financial losses for major players across the industry.”

Conoil, Nigeria’s oldest oil marketer, saw profits fall by 77% to ₦2bn in 2025. TotalEnergies and Conoil are among six major marketers that built extensive depot and filling station networks for imported products.

Price war cools as petrol gets costlier

By mid-2026, there were signs that the worst of the price war may be receding. The surge in global oil prices after the war between the US and Iran started on 28 February has driven the cost of petrol at the pump to as high as ₦1,500 in parts of the country.

TotalEnergies Marketing Nigeria returned to profitability in the first half of the year, posting a profit after tax of ₦4.95bn compared to a ₦2.86bn loss a year earlier. Revenue inched up 5% to ₦443.99bn.

Conoil also staged a recovery: revenue rose 25.2% to ₦179.89bn, while profit after tax surged 472% to ₦5.15bn.

Oyebanji believes the aggressive price-cutting that characterised 2025 has eased. “I don’t think the price competition between marketers is as sharp as it was,” he says. “The price in the industry now is determined by what Dangote sets and the imported parity price. Even MRS, which used to aggressively cut prices, is no longer doing so significantly.”

Government steps in to curb price volatility

In response to market volatility, the government announced a raft of new measures on Thursday to stabilise pump prices.

The NNPC has agreed to forgo its petrol retail profit margin for 30 days to cushion vulnerable households against crude oil price shocks.

If NNPC’s landing cost is ₦1,300, it would sell fuel to Nigerians, especially commercial vehicles, at the same price, according to the government.

The company’s discount gesture was announced by Taiwo Oyedele, finance minister and coordinating minister of the economy.

Oyedele said he hoped other marketers would take a cue from the NNPC, adding that the sharp rise in crude and petrol prices was not expected to last long.

“The government is negotiating a ceiling of ₦1,350 a litre on the ex-gantry or landing cost of petrol, to keep pump prices stable,” he said. Where costs rise above the ceiling, refiners and importers will carry the shortfall and recover it later, when crude prices or the exchange rate allow, without breaching the ceiling, he added.

“This is neither a subsidy nor a price control: it is designed to smooth prices over time rather than suppressing them,” Oyedele said. “The ceiling will be reviewed every month, reset where costs require, and the figures published for transparency.”

Petrol prices have jumped by almost eightfold from ₦175-₦185 since the government scrapped subsidies.

The minister said the government will also consider an excess profit tax for operators who take undue advantage of consumers anywhere along the energy value chain. Proceeds from taxes on price gouging will be used exclusively to cushion the impact of fuel prices through transport support or vouchers for urban minimum-wage earners, he added.

An NNPC spokesperson did not respond to a written request for comment by WhatsApp on 7 October 2026. (The Africa Report)