Oyo State’s abductions: A critical challenge for Tinubu’s leadership in Nigeria’s South West

The morning sun had already risen when 34-year-old Bolaji (last name withheld) reached for the small transistor radio beside him. Seated in the middle of his living room, he pressed it close to his ear to hear the faint commentary voices from a political talk show in early April 2026.

“Maybe no one is safe in the state again,” an analyst says on the political radio show. “The president must know that there is an attack directly on his home region that keeps those in the urban and rural areas in fear,” a caller during the call-in segment adds.

Bolaji lives about 10km outside Ogbomosho in Oyo state, South West Nigeria, where suspected jihadists recently attacked three schools and abducted 39 pupils and seven teachers, including a principal, on 15 May. An assistant school administrator was killed during the attack, while one of the abducted teachers was later beheaded in captivity.

Weeks later, kidnappers seized three relatives of former power minister Adebayo Adelabu in Ibadan, another city in Oyo, though they were later rescued by police.

Together, the incidents have fuelled concerns that the insecurity long associated with other parts of Nigeria is taking deeper root in the South West.

“The poor and the elite are both vulnerable,” Bolaji says. “You could be kidnapped or killed, whether in the forest or in the city.” As he spoke to The Africa Report, his two children, both under nine, looked on quietly. Fearing for their safety, he is keeping them home.

Scrutiny of Tinubu’s security record

The Oyo abductions carry political implications beyond the immediate tragedy. Many voters in the region had hoped that having one of their own in Aso Rock would bring greater security to the region, but that confidence is being tested in one of the president’s strongest areas of support.

On 1 June, the Nigeria Union of Teachers declared an indefinite strike across Oyo public schools over insecurity, while civil society groups protested in Ibadan and other southwestern cities for the release of the 15 May abductees. Demonstrations came a day after a federal delegation led by Chief of Staff Femi Gbajabiamila visited the affected communities.

The government can give them whatever they want. I just want my child back

What began as a campaign for the release of the Oyo abductees quickly evolved into wider scrutiny of Tinubu’s security record. Across news media, especially radio stations in the region, the incident became a reference point in discussions about the resurgence of kidnappings and insecurity under the president’s three-year reign.

“Even when insecurity affected the South West, public attention remained focused on the North, where the violence was often worse,” says Abdullahi Jimoh, an Oyo-based journalist and analyst.

“But recent attacks have changed that perception, as residents across the South West increasingly feel vulnerable to the kind of insecurity long associated with northern Nigeria.”

President Tinubu has not been silent; he condemned the reported killing of one of the abducted teachers in Oyo State as “barbaric”, expressed sympathy for Governor Seyi Makinde, the victims’ families and the people of the state, and said the federal government was working with Oyo authorities to secure the release of those still held.

He praised the police response, saying tactical and intelligence teams had been deployed in Oyo and neighbouring Kwara, with the inspector-general of police leading a “tech-driven” rescue operation on his instructions. He said a breakthrough was expected soon and vowed that the kidnappers and their local collaborators would be tracked down and prosecuted.

Wider attacks in Oyo

But the problem is the rising frequency of attacks, especially abductions. According to SBM Intelligence, a geopolitical research firm, at least 4,722 people were kidnapped in 997 incidentsbetween July 2024 and June 2025, during which at least 762 people were killed. Amnesty International says that about 1,100 people have been abducted by various armed groups between January and April 2026 alone.

On 12 June, suspected bandits ambushed a passenger vehicle near forest reserves linked to the Old Oyo National Park, killing one person and injuring several others.

While most kidnappings have been concentrated in northern Nigeria, particularly the North West and North East, violence has increasingly spread into Tinubu’s South West stronghold. In January, bandits killed five forest guards in an attack on a national park office in a community in Oyo, while gunmen later killed a police officer and abducted a Chinese expatriate in a separate raid in Ibadan.

It is a subtle call for the president to be voted out

The 15 May attack, which saw dozens of schoolchildren and school officials abducted, became the defining moment of the crisis, drawing comparisons with the 2014 kidnapping of more than 200 schoolgirls in Chibok.

“I just want to see my child,” says Oyedun (last name withheld), mother of one of the abducted children of the 15 May incident.

Institutions signal southern anger to Tinubu

She sits almost absentmindedly in a corner of her living room and stares down as she speaks to The Africa Report. “The government can give them whatever they want. I just want my child back,” she says.

Footage released by the abductors showed the pale head teacher pleading with the Nigerian government to speed up negotiations for their release. Some of the abducted schoolchildren also appeared distressed. An Ogbomoso monarch, Ghandi Olaoye, warned that military operations could endanger the abducted children and teachers.

Such signals from elite institutions are not neutral; they suggest quiet scepticism that Tinubu can deliver deterrence inside his own home ground.

What is at stake?

Tinubu is not just another president from Nigeria’s Yoruba-majority South West. He is the region’s dominant political figure, having built a powerful network of influence, patronage, and party structures across Yorubaland during and after his tenure as Lagos governor from 1999 to 2007.

The South West has long been Tinubu’s political stronghold, supplying a dependable base of voters, governors, legislators and party machinery.

Even amid strong challenges from Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar in 2023, he won four of the region’s six states. Although he narrowly lost Lagos to Obi and Osun to Atiku, the South West still delivered 2.54 million votes, about 37% of his national total of 8.8 million, making it his second-largest regional vote source after the North West.

“When a Yoruba man is in national power, it gets attention at home,” says Bolaji, still close to his radio. “Even in rural areas, people casually say he is ‘our own’ in power,” he says. “But with rising poverty and (recent) insecurity in the South West, social media now shows people, especially the youth – including Yorubas – quietly telling others to get ready for elections.”

“It is a subtle call for the president to be voted out.”

While security forces have arrested a few suspected informants, couriers and collaborators linked to the Oyo school kidnappings, the government has prioritised rescue efforts and maintained its public stance of not negotiating with terrorists.

“But the time is ticking,” says Ajani Kayode, Ibadan-based political analyst. “For the masses in the South West, it is a heartbreaking situation that can only be upturned by a successful rescue operation by the government,” he says. “For Tinubu’s government, it is a time to show his southwestern base that his government could still be trusted.” (The Africa Report)