Tinubu, Atiku, El-Rufai: Nigerian rivals lobby Trump ahead of 2027 elections

Washington is emerging as a key battleground in Nigeria’s 2027 elections.

Rival candidates are signing up lobbyists in Washington, racing against the clock to convince the Donald Trump administration that they’re the ones best equipped to deal with the insecurity plaguing Africa’s most populous country.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration kicked things off in high fashion on 12 December, hiring the DCI Group for an astronomical $9m to limit and redirect US outrage over the mass slaughter of Christians. This was followed a month later by a $900,000 contract with BGR Government Affairs.

Not to be outdone, opposition leader and perennial candidate Atiku Abubakar hired Republican lobbyist Karl von Batten of Von Batten-Montague-York for $1.2m on 10 March to “protect and strengthen the client’s reputational standing in Washington”, according to a public disclosure under the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA).

Atiku, President Olusegun Obasanjo’s running mate in 1999 and 2003 and now the chosen candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) coalition, previously ran for president in 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019 and 2023.

Most recently on 1 May, friends and family of jailed opposition politician Mallam Nasir El-Rufai hired democracy advocacy firm Vanguard Africa for an amount yet to be determined to bring his case to the attention of US policymakers. The former Tinubu ally was a key architect of the ADC coalition before his 16 February arrest on corruption and money laundering charges stemming from his time as governor of Kaduna State in Nigeria’s Muslim-majority north in 2015—2023.

While he is not known to have hired any US lobbyists, Peter Obi of the opposition Nigeria Democratic Congress has latched on to the free-for-all in his own way, denouncing the government’s $9m contract as a “national disgrace” and evidence of Tinubu’s misplaced priorities.

“It’s heating up, as it always does, with elections fast approaching,” says Vanguard Africa founder Jeffrey Smith.

US constituency

The US has long played an outsize role in Nigerian politics as a major security and development partner, unafraid to occasionally throw its weight around.

In 2015, the Barack Obama administration heavily leaned on President Goodluck Jonathan to guarantee free and fair elections that saw the victory of Muhammadu Buhari in the country’s first peaceful and democratic transfer of power from one political party to another.

“The US plays a very important role,” Von Batten tells The Africa Report. “It doesn’t have to get involved or put its thumb on the scale, no. Atiku doesn’t want that. [But] having US oversight over what’s happening will ensure that it’s free and fair elections.”

The US should insist that judicial entities stick to the rule of law, not to the dictates of politicians

“If he loses, he loses,” Von Batten says of Atiku. “If he wins, he wins. But his concern, like most Nigerians, is that this is going to get rigged.”

El-Rufai’s supporters say it’s already happening. Tinubu’s government, they argue, is weaponising the judiciary to knock out a potential rival.

“The United States should insist that judicial entities stick to the rule of law, not to the dictates of politicians,” says Mohamed Salihu, leader of the El-Rufai Support Group Association. “The way it is now, the judiciary is under the presidency.”

“Our position is simple: accountability should proceed, but it must be transparent, timely, and even-handed,” says Smith.

Spectre of violence

Looming over the duelling US lobbying campaigns is the widespread insecurity that has emerged as the fundamental issue of both the domestic electoral campaign and relations with Washington.

Tinubu’s camp insists that Nigeria is working with the US in fighting jihadist groups such as Boko Haram and Islamic State – West Africa Province (ISWAP).

“Both sides acknowledged the long-standing relationship between their two countries, grounded on shared values of pluralism, respect for rule of law and sovereignty,” the two countries said in a joint statement following the first meeting of the US-Nigeria Working Group in January.

“The US delegation thanked Nigeria for their urgent actions to strengthen security for at-risk Christian communities and Nigerians of all faiths whose safety is put in jeopardy by violence and terrorism.”

Von Batten counters that Abuja appears more interested in managing appearances than actually resolving the security situation.

The politicisation of the state’s security apparatus is only aggravating the issue, adds Vanguard Africa’s Smith.

“Nigeria’s security crisis is not only a battlefield problem; it is a legitimacy problem,” Smith tells The Africa Report. “Vanguard Africa’s advocacy will highlight that link: Durable security depends on public trust, the rule of law, and credible, nonpartisan institutions. If anti-corruption tools are perceived as selective or politically motivated, they deepen grievances, erode confidence in the state, and weaken the government’s ability to confront insecurity.”

While Nigeria’s politicians battle in the corridors of US power, pro-Christian groups continue to move forward with their own pressure campaigns.

“Let’s do less of denying the crisis,” says Stephen Osemwegie, whose Save Nigeria Group USA held a rally near the White House on 20 June, followed by a US-Nigeria Faith Heroes Gala on the 23 June. “Let’s ask for help, like a man whose house is on fire.”

(The Africa Report)