Do or Die Clash: 3 teams, one Chance

Today is the D’day. The day of reckoning for the Super Eagles. The day the nation is expected to pray for the players as they attempt to do the near impossible in securing qualification for the 2026 World Cup, which will be hosted by three countries – America, Mexico, and Canada.

It is a day that will be filled with mathematics, momentum and madness as well as a day of drama, with unpredictability and heartbreak.

The Godswill Akpabio Stadium in Uyo will come alive as the Super Eagles host the Cheetahs of Benin Republic in their final Group C clash of the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifiers.

With their qualification hopes hanging on a thread, the Super Eagles must win and rely on results elsewhere to keep their World Cup dream alive.

Nigeria’s 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign has been a frustrating one, marked by missed opportunities and costly draws that have left them needing a miracle on the final day.

After failing to qualify for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, losing that ticket to arch-rivals, Ghana, a few would have imagined the Super Eagles facing the possibility of missing out on back-to-back tournaments.

Since making their World Cup debut in 1994, Nigeria have never failed to qualify for consecutive editions.

Heading into the last round of Group C fixtures, Eric Chelle’s side sit third with 14 points from nine games, having won three, drawn five and lost one.

They have scored 11 goals and conceded eight in what has been an inconsistent campaign.
Nigeria trails group leaders, Benin, by three points and second-placed South Africa by one.

Nigeria remains third in the group with 14 points and a +3 goal difference. The remaining trio of Rwanda, Lesotho and Zimbabwe are mathematically out of the contest.

Regardless of Nigeria’s result in the final game against Benin, the Super Eagles need South Africa to either lose or draw at home against Rwanda to get an automatic ticket.

Should South Africa fail to beat Rwanda, then Nigeria needs the following scenarios to secure an automatic ticket for the 2026 World Cup:

*If Nigeria defeats Benin 1-0, the Super Eagles will finish top of the group on away goals. Nigeria scored in the 2-1 away defeat to the Cheetahs in their first encounter.

*If Nigeria defeats Benin 2-1, both teams will have identical records, and a tie-breaker, such as yellow cards or red cards, will be needed to determine the group winners.

*If Nigeria defeats Benin 2-0, the Eagles will finish top of the group with a superior goal difference. The best result will be a convincing two-goal margin victory for Nigeria.

However, if Nigeria concedes more than one goal against Benin but still wins, Beninese will qualify on away goals. Therefore, a 3-2, 4-3, or 5-4 victory will not secure Nigeria automatic ticket.

Chelle’s men head into this fixture buoyed by a 2-1 win over Lesotho on Friday, thanks to goals from Captain William Troost-Ekong and debutant, Akor Adams.

But their fate is now out of their hands – a situation entirely of their making after a campaign riddled with late collapses and unforced errors.

Benin, on the other hand, are on the brink of history. The Gernot Rohr’s side leads Group C with 17 points from nine games, having won five, drawn two and lost two.

They have scored 12 goals and conceded seven, with a resilient defence proving crucial to their rise.
The Cheetahs defeated Rwanda 1-0 last time out courtesy of substitute, Tosin Aiyegun’s goal, a result that propelled them to the top of the table.

Under Rohr, who managed Nigeria from 2016 to 2021, Benin has become one of the surprise packages of the qualifiers, defying expectations and taking advantage of South Africa’s earlier sanction for fielding an ineligible player.

Rohr also masterminded Benin’s 2-1 victory over Nigeria in June 2024 – the Super Eagles’ only defeat of the campaign and their first ever loss to their West African neighbours in eight meetings (six wins, one draw).

That result adds an extra layer of intrigue to this decisive fixture.

Nigeria will be without current African Footballer, Ademola Lookman, who is suspended after picking up a yellow card in the win over Lesotho.

But he has decided to stay behind to give his colleagues all the moral support they need to get blood from a stone.

Right-back, Ola Aina, also remains sidelined with an injury sustained during the 1-1 draw with South Africa in the last international window.

Benin Republic head coach, Gernot Rohr, will equally be missing two of his most influential players — Sessi d’Almeida and Yohan Roche after receiving their second yellow cards in the Cheetahs’ hard-fought 1–0 victory over Rwanda on Friday.

In midfield, Alex Iwobi is expected to play a key role once again.

Up front, Victor Osimhen, Super Eagle’s top scorer in the qualifying run with three goals, will lead the line alongside Tolu Arokodare, while Moses Simon and Samuel Chukwueze are likely to operate from the flanks.

One player Nigerians expect Eric Chelle to use in pairing Osimhen upfront is Akor Adams who scored the winning goal against Lesotho on his debut.

The Sevilla striker is another player who is assured of a shirt like Galatassary hitman, Osimhen. Adams brought refreshing vim and vitality to the attack of the Super Eagles and is needed in a match of this magnitude today.

At the back, Captain William Troost-Ekong should partner Calvin Bassey(another warrior in the Eagles) in central defence, with Stanley Nwabali continuing in goal, despite his theatrics.
For Benin, Steve Mounie will spearhead the attack, supported by Jodel Dossou.

Despite Nigeria’s struggles, desperation can sometimes spark defiance. The Super Eagles are under immense pressure but possess enough quality to make this a tight contest.

PLAYOFF SPOTS OPTION

The Super Eagles must finish second in the group to have an opportunity to be one of the four best second-place teams to secure a playoff spot.

The withdrawal of Eritrea from the qualifiers might have handed Nigeria another lifeline. The calculation of points for the playoff spot would not be straightforward due to the withdrawal.

According to CAF, countries vying for playoff spots will have the results against the sixth-placed teams in their various groups subtracted from their total point accumulation.

Head-to-Head: Nigeria dominant, but Benin hold advantage

The Super Eagles have enjoyed a strong record against Benin, winning 13 of their 17 meetings. Benin has managed just one victory, a memorable 2-1 win over Nigeria in March 2024 during this same qualification campaign.

That match, played in Abidjan due to stadium issues in Benin, saw the Squirrels come from behind to upset the favourites.

Since then, the sides met twice in Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers, with Nigeria earning a 3-0 win and a 1-1 draw.

However, Benin’s form under head coach, Gernot Rohr, Nigeria’s former manager, has improved considerably.

They have won three of their last five matches in the qualifiers, positioning themselves as legitimate contenders for a World Cup berth.

Nigeria are unbeaten in their last five games (two wins, three draws), though their recent performances have drawn criticism for a lack of cutting edge in attack.(Vanguard)