With President Tinubu confirmed as the APC’s 2027 candidate, focus now turns to key state races, especially where governors can’t seek re-election.
While all APC members share a common goal – President Bola Tinubu’s re-election in 2027 – the unity ends at state lines, where influential politicians jockey for control ahead of critical party congresses in the coming months.
Ogun: Governor Abiodun faces internal revolt
In Ogun State, next door to Lagos, a high-stakes battle is imminent. Governor Dapo Abiodun, completing his second term, is constitutionally barred from standing again. Nevertheless, he seeks to maintain influence by ensuring that loyalists dominate the state APC structure after the upcoming party elections.
Lagos will be fascinating – especially if Tinubu decides to position his son for governor
However, his plans are being vigorously challenged by Senator Solomon Adeola, known locally as “Yayi”. Despite both belonging to the APC, relations between them have soured, as Adeola openly criticises the governor’s leadership. Yayi, who comes from Ogun’s minority Yewa bloc – which has historically never produced a governor – seeks to make history by becoming the state’s next leader.
Adeola reportedly enjoys strong backing from Tinubu, who was instrumental in securing Adeola’s influential role as chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee. Tinubu also appointed Adeola’s campaign director, Iziaq Salako, as junior health minister. Notably, Governor Abiodun has no allies in Tinubu’s federal cabinet – a clear disadvantage stemming from his open support for Tinubu’s rival, former Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, during the APC presidential primaries in 2022.
“Tinubu has indicated support for Yayi. A federal university was recently established in Yayi’s hometown,” says columnist Jide Ojo, suggesting Governor Abiodun may eventually be forced to concede ground.
Bauchi: Ministers clash in gubernatorial ambition
In Bauchi State, foreign minister Yusuf Tuggar (APC) and Governor Bala Mohammed of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) are locked in a public feud. Tuggar, harbouring gubernatorial ambitions, sees an opportunity to weaken Mohammed, who chairs the influential PDP Governors’ Forum and is eyeing a presidential bid next year.
Yet Tuggar’s path to the governorship is complicated by his cabinet colleague, health minister Ali Pate. A former chief executive of Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, Pate is influential both internationally and domestically. Although he failed to secure votes in the APC’s Bauchi gubernatorial primary in 2022, he has since leveraged his position to attract significant federal investment to the state, greatly boosting his local popularity ahead of a renewed bid.
Oyo: Ibadan dominance under threat?
Oyo State, with Ibadan – the largest city in south-west Nigeria – as its political heart, also promises a spirited contest. Historically, Ibadan has used its demographic advantage to produce nearly all governors in the Fourth Republic.
Tinubu is the most political president Nigeria has had, he knows how to balance competing interests and prevent crises
Senator Fatai Buhari, from Ogbomosho, now aims to challenge Ibadan’s dominance by rallying support from marginalised groups after three successful terms in the Senate. His influence has grown notably through federal projects brought to underserved areas, including the establishment of a university in Oke Ogun.
Yet Buhari faces stiff competition from Bayo Adelabu, the minister of power and scion of the influential Adelabu political family in Ibadan. Adelabu, a former deputy governor of Nigeria’s Central Bank, has leveraged his resources and Tinubu’s patronage to bolster his political base. Despite briefly leaving the APC in 2022, Adelabu maintained Tinubu’s support and now aims to use his strong Ibadan roots to secure victory in next year’s primary election.
“Tinubu is the most political president Nigeria has had,” says political analyst Busari Dauda of the University of Ibadan. “He knows how to balance competing interests and prevent crises.”
Osun: Governor Adeleke seeks strategic alliances
Osun State, set for its governorship election in 2026, presents another critical battleground. Governor Ademola Adeleke of the PDP, popularly known as the “dancing governor”, is already positioning himself for re-election. Notably, Adeleke, who is the uncle of music star Davido, has initiated strategic overtures to President Tinubu. Several PDP senators aligned with Adeleke have openly endorsed Tinubu’s second term, a significant gesture aimed at fostering political goodwill.
However, Adeleke’s actions have not deterred APC stalwarts from preparing for battle. Senator Ajibola Basiru, APC’s national secretary and a fierce critic of Adeleke, has declared his candidacy. Yet, Basiru must first overcome Bola Oyebamiji, the head of the National Inland Waterways Authority, who enjoys the support of maritime minister and former Osun Governor Gboyega Oyetola. Oyetola, having strategically stepped aside due to age, is likely to wield influence from behind the scenes.
Lagos: Succession intrigue builds
In Lagos, Nigeria’s economic capital, the APC’s dominance since 1999 remains unchallenged, underpinned by Tinubu’s undisputed leadership. With Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu nearing the end of his term limit, speculation about his successor intensifies. Observers are particularly curious about whether Tinubu might attempt a dynastic move.
“Lagos will be fascinating – especially if Tinubu decides to position his son for governor,” says columnist Jide Ojo. (The Africa Report)
