MATTERS ARISING: With Boko Haram resurgence, is the Nigerian military losing the plot?

The viral video of young Nigerian soldiers being briefed by their commanding officer ahead of deployment somewhere in Borno state says it all: they looked demoralised and defeated. It is easy to understand: the Nigerian army has lost four commanding officers in the last two months.

TheCable understands that Nigeria has spent an average of N200 billion per month, extra-budgetary, in the last one year to support military operations across the country but the results, many Nigerians will insist, are not commensurate.

For some years, Maiduguri, the capital city of Borno state, the epicentre of the Boko Haram insurgency, had enjoyed relative peace from the decades-long crisis. The significant calm didn’t happen by chance. It was the result of a strategic military onslaught against the terrorists, a strong intelligence network, and structural changes.

Nevertheless, the insurgents have made several attempts to infiltrate the capital city with a couple of attacks on the outskirts, but they were repelled by security forces. Hence, the terrorists were pushed to the rural areas, mostly around the Sambisa forest and Lake Chad Basin, where they targeted villages and military formations.

But this changed on Monday when bomb blasts went off in three locations in the historic city, and 23 persons were confirmed dead with 108 injured. This marks a setback from the gains made by the military over the years, having secured the state capital and recaptured other towns in the state.

While this didn’t come as a shock to many, the signs have been there, subtle and ominous, yet obvious to observers. Tales from the past few months bear witness to this. The terrorists were closing in again after they were dislodged from the capital city a few years ago; it was just a matter of time, and they finally struck.

THE TELL-TALE SIGNS

Before the series of bomb blasts in Maiduguri less than 24 hours ago, the insurgents had run amok and recorded some daring attacks that made a big hit on the military. Recently, they dislodged the troops from their barracks, killed soldiers, burnt the army bases and vehicles, and carted away equipment. Some soldiers also took to their heels. In October 2025, Aliyu Saidu Paiko, commanding officer of the 202 Battalion in Bama LGA, and soldiers were killed by Boko Haram fighters.

The biggest hit, which observers describe as the straw that broke the camel’s back, was the killing of a high-ranking military officer during an ambush.

In November 2025, the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) fighters killed Mohammed Uba, a brigadier general, following the ambush of a convoy of soldiers and operatives of the Civilian Joint Task Force (CJTF) in Borno state.

The terrorists ambushed the troops at Damboa Road along Wajiroko in Borno when they were transporting some military equipment.

The ISWAP fighters reportedly opened fire on the military convoy along the road — an incident that led to a gun duel between the troops and the insurgents.

ISWAP later posted screenshots of Uba’s WhatsApp chats and graphic images of the slain brigadier general in Al-Naba, the group’s Arabic language newspaper.

Two months after, a major in the army was killed following an attack on a military patrol by ISWAP fighters in Damasak, headquarters of Mobbar LGA of Borno state.

Sources told TheCable that the officer, who commanded the Damasak military base, was leading a foot patrol of about 30 soldiers early on Friday when the team came under explosives and gun attack by the insurgents.

The assault forced the soldiers to disperse. While eight officers later returned to base, 22 soldiers were initially unaccounted for, including the commanding officer.

A few weeks after attacking a military camp in Jakana, Kaga LGA, killing soldiers and carting weapons away, on March 1, the insurgents also attacked another military formation in Mayenti, Bama LGA, killing Umar Ibrahim Mairiga, the commanding officer, and some of his soldiers.

On March 6, the insurgents launched another attack on a major military base in the Koduga area of the state, killing S.I. Iliyasu, the commanding officer of the 222 Battalion.

In February, the insurgents had attacked a military camp in the Kukawa LGA of Borno but were resisted by the soldiers, and many of the attackers were executed. That act of bravery drew applause from the residents and the lawmaker representing the area in state assembly. A month later, on March 9, around 12 am, the insurgents overran the camp and killed Umar Farouq, a lieutenant-colonel and the commanding officer of the base, alongside several soldiers.

It didn’t end there. Another bloody attack was recently reported on March 11 in Ngoshe, Gwoza LGA, where senior military officers and soldiers were killed by Boko Haram fighters. A heavy civilian casualty was also recorded.

The large-scale assault launched by the insurgents on these military formations and the casualties recorded by the army have been ascribed to lack of adequate ammunition and equipment, low morale among soldiers, poor welfare, limited personnel, inadequate air support during counter-insurgency operations and alleged operational compromise from within the military.

AS THINGS STAND

The Monday bomb attack in Maiduguri spells doom. As soldiers who once fought terrorists on the battlefield now flee from camps under attack, it further emboldens insurgents and advances their cause.

Gains recorded by the military over the years in the fight against the Boko Haram insurgency is fast sliding away.

On Tuesday, the army said more Boko Haram suicide bombers may be lurking in Maiduguri, and targeting crowded areas.

President Bola Tinubu has directed security chiefs to relocate to Maiduguri, saying the country will not succumb to fear.

Who takes the responsibility for this unending carnage?

Fingers are pointing in different directions. While the political parties are blaming the president — the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the African Democratic Congress (ADC) have accused him of not doing enough — insiders in government are putting the blame at the feet of the military chiefs.

“There is nothing the military has asked for that the president has not provided,” a senior presidency official said, declining to be named for “security reasons”.

TheCable understands that funds are promptly released to the military directly by the ministry of finance without the direct involvement of the ministry of defence and the office of the national security adviser in order to avoid any bottlenecks.

The biggest challenge is the ground operations, military insiders told TheCable.

The military is involved in operations across the country, further stretching its human and material resources, and this is impacting negatively on its efficiency.

Security experts are divided as to how the issue can be resolved. Many think the support being offered by the US can help Nigeria significantly, some are of the opinion that the military hierarchy will have to up its game to achieve efficiency — and this includes prioritising its reactions to the various challenges.

As a starting point, boosting the morale of the troops may help. Those in the viral video did not look like soldiers going to a battle full of confidence. (TheCable)