How Makinde’s Presidential Bid May Reshape 2027 Contest

Governor of Oyo State, Seyi Makinde, yesterday officially declared his intention to contest the 2027 presidential election on the platform of the Allied People’s Movement (APM).

The declaration has put to rest months of speculations about the ambition of the governor ahead 2027, since the crisis in the Peoples Democratic Party(PDP) worsened leading the factionalisation of the party with one camp supported by Makinde and his colleague in Bauchi State, Bala Mohammed and the other loyal to the FCT minister, Nyesom Wike.

Makinde had long been said to be nursing presidential ambition which was said to be one of the factors responsible for the inability of the PDP leaders to reconcile the two factions as the Wike camp is said to be hellbent on ensuring that the party does not field a presidential candidate in the 2027 elections.

Now that Makinde has declared on the platform of the APM, a relatively unknown party,  many are curious to know what informed the decision since the governor could easily have run for the senate as most of his colleagues are doing.

Even his friend, Bala Mohammed, who first defected to the APM preferred to run for Senate, though he has not hidden his desire to be president as he contested for the position in 2019 and 2023.

Makinde is described as the last man standing in the PDP as he held on to the party till the last days of the submission of voters register to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

The big question, however, is what impact would his declaration for the presidency make since he is running on a platform that needs introduction.

Already, the All Progressives Congress (APC) is likely to field President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, while the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) may likely field Peter Obi; while the African Democratic Congress (ADC) is likely to present either Atiku Abubakar, Rotimi Amaechi or Mohammed Hayatudeen and the two factions of the PDP are also selling forms to aspirants.

Other parties like the Social Democratic Party (SDP)  Action Democratic Party (ADP) the African Action Congress (AAC) and others are also expected to field presidential candidates.

Analysts say since Makinde is from the South West as President Tinubu, his entry into the race may affect the chances of Tinubu as he is likely to draw his voters from the area.

It is not clear who Makinde may pick as running mate but if it falls within the North, the impact may not be much in the region.

Declaration can alter dynamics – Prof Kari

A political analyst, Professor Abubakar Kari, said the declaration of Seyi Makinde for the presidency could alter the dynamics of the 2027 general elections, describing the development as a “very interesting political scenario.”

Kari said in an interview on Thursday with our correspondent, that Makinde’s declaration did not come as a surprise, given his role in the internal politics of the Peoples Democratic Party in recent years.

“The declaration didn’t come to me as a surprise. Seyi Makinde, so to say, has been posturing. You may call it posturing, but he appeared to be quite serious about the PDP issue before,” he said.

According to him, the Oyo State governor had been one of the prominent figures in a major PDP bloc alongside Bala Mohammed.

“He and Governor Bala Mohammed were up in arms against the weaker faction. He belongs to the rebellious faction and so on. So, he could not have been doing all these things for nothing,” Kari said.

He added that there had been widespread speculation before now that Makinde would join the presidential race.

“There have been speculations actually before now that he was going to run for the presidency. Some people even alleged that he was going to align with Atiku and be Atiku’s deputy. So, speculations were rife about Seyi Makinde,” he said.

The analyst also pointed to ongoing political realignments involving the Allied Peoples Movement (APM), saying some PDP stakeholders had already moved towards the platform.

“Governor Bala Mohammed declared for APM last two weeks, but he said he’s going to contest for Senate. His entire lieutenants have also declared for APM,” he said.

Speaking on the possible implications of Makinde’s ambition, Kari said different interpretations would emerge because the governor comes from the same South-West geopolitical zone as President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

“Makinde is governor of Oyo State from the South-West, the same political zone as Tinubu. So, it is quite interesting. Many people did not expect that another person from the South-West would declare for the presidency, at least not someone of Makinde’s calibre,” he said.

He said some observers might believe Makinde’s candidacy could weaken Tinubu’s support base in the region.

“One of the immediate things that will come to many people’s minds is that Makinde will attempt to eat into Tinubu’s votes. But I think that is quite simplistic,” he stated.

Kari added that another school of thought believed the development could further divide opposition votes.

“Another inference to be drawn perhaps is that Makinde is in cahoots with Tinubu, to ensure that the opposition votes are split. There have been speculations that several candidates, including high-profile ones, are sponsored to split opposition votes,” he said.

He, however, said the emergence of more strong contenders would make the 2027 race more competitive.

“We can now think of four high-profile politicians going in for the presidency, which will be a re-enactment of 2023 — Bola Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi and now Seyi Makinde,” Kari said.

He noted that unlike the 2023 election, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso now appeared to be aligning with Peter Obi.

“It is a very interesting political development. It will be good for democracy in a way because we wouldn’t want to have a one-way traffic for the APC.

“At least there will be semblance of a contest. Even if it may not be real, or whatever some people are speculating, the fact that there will be four high-profile politicians going in for the presidency is a very interesting political development,” he added.

‘He’s just a spoiler, won’t make much impact’

Professor Murtala Muhammad of North West University, Kano, described Makinde’s ambition as “a clear manifestation of the Nigerian elite who want to be in power at all costs.”

He argued that Nigeria’s political landscape is dominated by one major party, with opposition parties weakened by internal crises.

According to him, Makinde’s decision to pitch his tent with a smaller party may not yield the desired outcome.

“His chances of winning the presidential election are not only slim, but very difficult. For you to win an election, you need to align, you need to go into coalition with other figures, with other political parties,” he said.

He noted that while other political heavyweights such as Atiku Abubakar, Nasir El-Rufai, Rotimi Amaechi, Rabiu Kwankwaso, and Peter Obi are aligning with different platforms, Makinde risks political irrelevance if he fails to build a strong coalition.

Muhammad also argued that Makinde’s contest may not come close to any of the top three contenders, though he said it would make impact in Oyo and Bauchi.

On his part, Dr Kabiru Sa’id Sufi of the Kano State College of Arts, Science and Remedial Studies, said Makinde’s move could have two major implications for the 2027 polls.

“One, it will reduce the influence and votes of the PDP as a major opposition party, since Oyo State is currently under its control. Two, coming from the same South West region as President Bola Tinubu, Makinde’s candidacy may erode the votes of the incumbent in his home base,” Sufi explained.

He, however, downplayed Makinde’s chances of emerging as a top contender. “I don’t think he will come within the top three or four contestants. But he might win Oyo State for the APM if alliances are properly built,” he said.

Sufi concluded that Makinde’s candidacy could act as a spoiler, weakening both the APC and PDP without necessarily positioning him as a frontrunner.

Speaking on the development, Prof. Hassan Saliu, National President of the Nigerian Political Science Association (NPSA), said Governor Seyi Makinde’s declaration for the presidency under the proposed PDP–APM alliance reflects routine political calculations that are unlikely to reshape the country’s political landscape.

“Anybody who is aware of politics will not be surprised. Everybody just plays it,” he said.

Prof. Saliu questioned the political weight of both parties, arguing that the alliance lacks the strength to make a meaningful impact.

“What is the strength of APM? What is the strength of PDP? I don’t think it changes much,” he said.

He added that most political manoeuvres are driven by the need to sustain influence after leaving office.

The political analyst also pointed to resource advantage and incumbency sentiment as decisive factors in presidential contests.

“More so, he is coming from the zone of the president. Between what Makinde can dispense with and what the president can dispense with, you should know the difference,” he noted.

Describing the move as a political gamble, Saliu said outcomes remain uncertain but typical of political behaviour.

“It’s a gamble. Whether it will work or not, we know not. But you can’t tell any politician not to gamble,” he said.

He maintained that while politicians are free to take risks, such moves do not always translate into electoral success, adding that the current alliance is unlikely to alter the balance of power.

“Based on what I’ve seen on the ground, I don’t think it can change much,” he said.

The Makinde declaration

The Oyo State governor made the declaration at a mega rally held at the historic Mapo Hall in Ibadan, the state capital, where he unveiled what he called ‘grand alliance’ between the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the APM.

Daily Trust reports that the mega rally was preceded by the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the PDP and APM, supervised by Governor Makinde alongside the National Chairman of the APM, Yusuf Mamman Dantalle.

The agreement was earlier signed at the PDP South-West Secretariat, Soji Adagunodo House, along Old Ife Road in Ibadan.

Seyi Bamidele signed on behalf of the PDP, while Oladele Oyadeji signed for the APM.

Addressing the rally attended by party leaders across the state and South West, including, former governor of Osun State Olagusoye Oyinlola, Makinde announced his presidential bid, asserting that it’s time to reset Nigeria.

“Therefore, today, I, Oluseyi Abiodun Makinde, FNSE, announce my candidacy for the position of the President of Federal Republic of Nigeria,” he declared.

Makinde said Nigeria needs competent and accountable leadership capable of rebuilding public trust, strengthening institutions, and delivering measurable progress for all citizens.

He said: “The economic and security situations have continued to deteriorate, putting the majority of Nigerians on survivor mode.

“And this is on a daily basis. Those charged with the responsibility of looking out for the welfare of citizens are treating the authority they hold in trust as personal property that they can wield as they please. This is why, for the past several months, one question has been at the top of my mind.

“Where do we go from here? Is this the way we are to continue as a nation? We have been pushed to the wall with the belief that we will turn against ourselves in confusion, or worse still, that we will become too weary from trying to survive on a daily basis to fight back.”

He explained that the alliance was borne out of alleged plot to foist one party system on Nigeria.

Makinde said “I pronounce today the birth of the Reset Nigeria movement. The time to reset Nigeria is now.

“The first grand alliance is formed. The alliance of People’s Democratic Party and the Allied People’s Movement. This handshake will allow us field candidates at all levels.

“We will field candidates from top to bottom. We will field candidates from presidency to state assembly and everything in between.”

PDP faction denies alliance with APM

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) faction backed by the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike, however, denied going into an alliance with the Allied Peoples Movement (APM).

National Publicity Secretary of the faction, Jungudo Mohammed, said the PDP is not part of any coalition or agreement with the APM or any other political group.

He addressed what he termed “misleading narratives and deliberate falsehoods” regarding a gathering in Ibadan held under the guise of a PDP-APM alliance.

“Let us state clearly and unequivocally that the PDP is not part of any alliance, coalition, agreement, or political arrangement with the Allied Peoples Movement or any other political party regarding this gathering. Any person or group claiming to act on behalf of the PDP in connection with this event is doing so without the knowledge, approval, consent, or authority of the party,” Mohammed stated.

Mohammed further alleged that the Ibadan event was a “desperate attempt” by Governor Seyi Makinde and his associates to mislead the public.

“Governor Makinde must stop attempting to camouflage his political intentions through false claims of alliances. It is obvious that ego and pride have made it difficult for him to accept the reality of his growing political isolation,” Mohammed said.

Makinde’s political journey

The Oyo State governor and his Bauchi State colleague were seen as the last hope for salvaging the PDP from the forces working to ensure the party does not present a presidential candidate but were not very successful as their colleagues began to defect from the PDP in droves.

After the Supreme court nullified the Ibadan convention which produced Kabiru Tanimu Turaki as national chairman, he and Bala Mohammed began to hold consultations with other parties like the Peoples Redemption Party, PRP, and the African Democratic Congress (ADC).

Bala Mohammed also held talks with the All Progressive Congress (APC) leaders until he finally defected to the Allied Peoples Movement (APM).

There were speculations then that Makinde would defect to the ADC, so he could run on a joint ticket with former vice president, Atiku Abubakar  as the vice presidential candidate or join his friend in APM.

Yesterday’s declaration has revealed that he chose to join his friend, Bala Mohammed, in the APM.

Makinde has contested in several elections in the past. In 2007, he contested for the Oyo South Senatorial seat on the platform of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) but lost to the People’s Democratic Party candidate- Kamoru Adedibu. He ran again for the ticket under the PDP in 2011, but lost in the primary.

After that, he made two attempts for the governorship In 2015 on the platform of the PDP and Social Democratic Party (SDP) but was not successful.

After a third attempt, he became governor of  Oyo State in 2019 and got reelected in 2023.

Allied Peoples Movement: Eight years on

The Allied Peoples Movement (APM) was registered by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in August 2018 as a national political party ahead of the 2019 general elections.

The party’s constitution outlines its focus on productivity, peace and national unity, with agriculture reflected in its logo through images of a cassava stem and tuber. Its national headquarters is in Abuja, while Yusuf Mamman Dantalle serves as national chairman.

In the 2019 general elections, the party won one seat in the House of Representatives.

In the 2023 general elections, APM fielded Chukwuka Monye as its presidential candidate but failed to secure any seats in the Senate, House of Representatives elections.

The outcome placed the party among political platforms without legislative representation at the national level.

APM remains registered with INEC and has indicated plans to participate in the 2027 general elections.

(Daily trust)