World Bank forecasts sustained volatility in global gas prices

The World Bank has projected continued volatility in global natural gas prices, warning that geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions and structural demand shifts will keep energy markets unstable in the near term.

The forecast was outlined in an analysis based on the April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook, which reviewed recent trends in global liquefied natural gas markets and assessed prospects through 2027.

According to the report, global gas markets have been significantly affected by disruptions linked to conflict in the Middle East, particularly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit route for LNG shipments from major producers such as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

The World Bank noted that the disruption triggered sharp price increases across key markets, with Asia’s LNG benchmark rising by about 94 per cent in March, while Europe’s benchmark climbed by around 59 per cent over the same period due to intensified competition for limited LNG cargoes.

Although prices eased in the following months, the institution warned that the market remains highly sensitive to supply shocks and geopolitical developments, with volatility expected to persist.

The report stated that the United States LNG benchmark experienced comparatively lower pressure due to strong domestic production and ample storage capacity, helping to cushion the impact of global disruptions.

It added that while global gas demand growth has slowed significantly, rising by just 0.8 per cent in 2025, supply constraints and regional competition continue to exert upward pressure on prices.

The World Bank further projected that natural gas prices are likely to rise again in 2026 before partially easing in 2027, depending on the pace of recovery in Middle Eastern LNG supply and the resumption of infrastructure operations in key exporting regions.

However, it warned that risks remain tilted to the upside, including prolonged geopolitical tensions, low storage levels in Europe, and rising demand from emerging energy sources such as artificial intelligence-driven data centres, which are increasing electricity consumption globally.

The report also highlighted that Europe’s gas storage levels remain relatively low compared with historical averages, raising concerns over the region’s ability to refill inventories during peak demand cycles.

On the downside, the World Bank noted that weaker-than-expected economic growth in Asia could soften demand and ease pressure on global prices, but stressed that such an outcome would not eliminate underlying supply risks.

Overall, the institution said the global gas market is entering a phase of heightened uncertainty, where supply disruptions rather than demand growth are increasingly driving price movements.

It added that unless geopolitical tensions ease and new supply capacity comes fully online, volatility in global gas prices is likely to remain a defining feature of the energy market outlook through the medium term.(Punch)