Fitch revises Nigeria’s outlook to positive, affirms ‘B’ rating

Fitch has revised Nigeria’s Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings outlook from Stable to Positive, citing the success of the sustained economic reforms and rising foreign exchange reserves.

The Global rating agency also noted the easing inflationary pressures and improved prospects for economic growth, which the World Bank has projected at 4.3 per cent for this year.

The agency also affirmed Nigeria’s rating at “B”.

According to the agency, exchange rate flexibility, declining inflation and faster-than-expected accumulation of foreign exchange reserves were major factors behind the improved assessment.

Nigeria’s gross external reserves hit $55 billion last month from $32 billion in mid-April 2024.

Fitch said the positive outlook reflected its growing confidence that the government would sustain reforms aimed at strengthening Nigeria’s policy framework and improving macroeconomic stability.

The formalisation of foreign exchange transactions, portfolio inflows, higher export earnings and remittances by Nigerians in the Diaspora all play roles in the new rating.

The projected expansion is expected to be driven largely by non-oil economic activities.
The rating agency also noted that Nigeria’s crude oil production had met the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) target of 1.5 million barrels per day since May 2026.

It added that increased domestic refining capacity was helping to reduce imports of refined petroleum products and the associated demand for foreign exchange.

Fitch projected average inflation to be at 15.4 per cent in 2026, less than half its 2024 level.

It expressed optimism that ongoing tax reforms would improve non-oil revenue mobilisation and strengthen government finances.

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, while reacting to the development, in a statement on Friday said, “A positive outlook signals that the rating could be raised if current trends are sustained.”

Mr. Oyedele said the decision was further validation that the administration’s reforms were working and impacting positively on the economy.

According to him, “with this action, all three major international rating agencies have taken positive rating actions on Nigeria in 2026.”