Nigerian opposition party lawmakers are strengthening the ruling party through defections as President Bola Tinubu continues to push controversial bills through parliament.
The defection of several MPs from Nigeria’s opposition parties to the All Progressives Congress (APC) has swelled the ranks of the ruling party and put it in a strong position for the 2027 general elections.
The defections have also strengthened the ruling party’s hand as the president has continued to push some controversial bills through parliament.
Nine defections in 2024
Five members of the Labour Party (LP) and one of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the House of Representatives joined the APC recently, bringing the number to nine federal lawmakers defecting to the ruling party this year.
Last July, a senator from Imo in Nigeria’s South East crossed from the LP to the APC. Barely three months later, two PDP members in the House of Representatives – from Abia and Zamfara – also left for the ruling party.
Sources within the APC tell The Africa Report that the ruling party is in talks with more federal lawmakers to convince them to dump their parties.
“It is the delight of every political party to have its ranks swell, particularly with heavyweights like elected representatives,” Jide Ojo, a public affairs analyst, tells The Africa Report.
“The implication is that we are gradually moving towards a one-party state, a de jure multiparty democracy but a de facto one-party system,” he adds.
Unpopular reforms
President Bola Tinubu‘s unpopular reforms since he came into office in May last year triggered a severe cost of living crisis. Inflation has soared to a record high and citizens grapple with the realities of a hugely eroded purchasing power.
But the president’s party continued to swell in numbers with the influx of not just the lawmakers but other prominent opposition members from across the country.
More than half of the 109-member Nigerian Senate are members of the APC. With the latest defections in the House of Representatives, the ruling party’s lawmakers increased from 162 to 171. There are 360 members in the lower house.
Ojo says future elections are at the heart of the defections, with politicians hoping to leverage the advantage provided by the party in power.
“They [the politicians] are always looking at the next elections and they are going to be pitching their tents where they feel they could win,” he says.
Unsettled opposition
The in-fighting within the opposition parties has fuelled the spate of defections to the ruling party, analysts say.
The PDP is torn between a group loyal to former vice president Atiku Abubakar and the Federal Capital Territory minister Nyesom Wike, while the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) has expelled its presidential candidate in last year’s presidential election, Rabiu Kwankwaso, over allegations of anti-party activities.
The LP is not left out in the intra-party rows.
Former governor Peter Obi, on whose back the party climbed to national consciousness in last year’s general election, had supervised the constitution of a caretaker committee to resolve the leadership dispute in the party. Julius Abure, the party’s national chairman, however, says the committee is unknown to the party’s constitution and therefore illegal.
The LP lawmakers in parliament, who formed the bulk of the defectors to the ruling APC, cited the party’s leadership crisis as the major reason for their departure.
But the party leadership under Abure says the defectors left the party because they had been infected by the corruption in the APC.
“We have written to the speaker [of the House of Representatives] to declare their seats vacant but because it’s the majority party, they will be foot-dragging,” Abayomi Arabambi, the LP national publicity secretary, tells The Africa Report.
Arabambi, who is loyal to Abure, adds that the party had also approached a court to declare the lawmakers’ seats vacant.
In 2012, a federal court declared vacant the seat of an LP lawmaker in Ondo State who had defected to the Action Congress of Nigeria (one of the parties that merged to become APC); and Arabambi says he is optimistic of another victory.
The PDP had also approached a federal court in Warri in South Nigeria seeking an order to declare vacant the seat occupied by Erhiatake Ibori-Sueni who defected to the APC.
Coming together
Two of the major opposition candidates and runners-up in the 2023 presidential election – Atiku and Obi – have been holding consultations towards a possible alliance ahead of 2027.
There have been claims of the duo being on the ticket in the next presidential election, with Obi serving as the running mate – like their joint ticket in the 2019 election.
Both camps have neither confirmed nor denied the rumour.
Among the Obidients group – as Obi’s supporters are popularly known – opinions are divided over the suggestion. Some insist that only a presidential candidacy befits their leader.
“A lot of Obidients don’t understand that this game of politics is not about emotions,” Laura Ogunshola, a member of the group and former LP organising secretary in Lagos, tells The Africa Report.
“We have to face reality. In the politics of Nigeria, you need to be factual. Atiku is well known in the north, and the northerners have the largest population.”
But while the opposition continues to discuss strategy, the ruling party keeps strengthening its ranks. Political watchers say Tinubu’s unseen hands are apparent in the crisis rocking all the major opposition parties. However, analyst Ojo dismissed such claims, describing it as a “lame excuse”.
“Why will you allow the ruling party at the centre to be fuelling crisis in your state or your party?”
He says politicians weakening their parties by joining the ruling party is all part of the political game.
“We should understand that a political party is a special purpose vehicle; when you get to your destination what do you do? You disembark,” Ojo says. (The Africa Report)
