2027: Inside Wike’s two-level strategy to stop Fubara’s reelection in Rivers

Nyesom Wike, the minister of Nigeria’s Federal Capital Territory, is one of Nigeria’s most powerful politicians – a measure of the big battle before Sim Fubara.

Considered quiet but stubborn, Fubara has oscillated between confrontation and conciliation in his handling of the prolonged power struggle with Wike over the past three years.

While that strategy has bought him time – helping him survive repeated impeachment threats from a state legislature loyal to Wike – recent developments suggest it has failed to deliver a lasting political settlement.

In a recent media interview, Wike, who continues to position himself as Rivers State’s political kingmaker, said Fubara’s second-term ambition does not have his blessing. Instead, he disclosed that his political vehicle – the Rainbow Coalition –is already mobilising to produce a different governor in 2027.

According to Wike, Fubara’s reelection bid violates the terms of the peace deal brokered by Tinubu to resolve the Rivers political crisis.

Wike’s political influence

The Rainbow Coalition, which draws members from both the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), reflects the breadth of Wike’s political influence and embodies what allies describe as a two-level strategy to stop Fubara from returning to office.

Wike ally and coalition member Chimanam Wodi tells The Africa Report that the alliance represents a common front “to overthrow the governor by all means”.

He says the model was first tested in Edo State during former governor Godwin Obaseki’s struggle with the APC machinery.

Meanwhile, Wike’s camp is backing candidates in both the APC and the PDP to confront Fubara at different stages of the electoral process.

At the APC primary level, Fubara is expected to face a Wike-backed aspirant. If he succeeds in securing the party’s ticket, he will then confront another Wike-aligned candidate in the governorship election itself.

“That is what is playing out,” says Opunabo Inko-Tariah, a former Wike ally. “He is fielding aspirants in both the APC and the PDP so that, whichever way things go, he has a candidate to frustrate the governor in 2027. If, for example, the president is more sympathetic to an APC candidate, he already has an APC man in the race.”

Wannabe defections

Alabo George-Kelly of the APC and Kingsley Chinda of the PDP are in the spotlight as figures being positioned by Wike in the dual-track strategy against Fubara. Both men have obtained the governorship nomination forms. Though Chinda has not publicly announced his defection from the PDP, he obtained the APC form and underwent screening with the APC aspirants.

No defecting governor was guaranteed a return ticket. There were always negotiations and power-sharing arrangements between old and new members. But Rivers is different because of Wike

“Chinda has not officially defected from the PDP,” says an insider familiar with the situation. “His defection letter was never read on the floor of the House, but it is clear he is now aligned with the APC. A few days ago, Wike directed his loyalists to move into the APC, and Chinda attended the APC governorship screening.”

The source suggested the move may be Wike’s Plan B to safeguard his political structure, in case the Kabiru Taminu Turaki bloc of the PDP regains control of the party at the national level after the setback caused by the recent Supreme Court ruling.

Fubara’s long game

Elected on the PDP platform in 2023, Fubara defected to the APC in 2025 as part of what allies describe as a long-term strategy to secure reelection. The move followed the migration of several Wike loyalists from the PDP into the ruling party and was designed to bring Fubara closer to Tinubu to insulate him from Wike’s influence.

But Wike’s enduring grip on Rivers politics complicated that calculation.

Although Tinubu, who is the APC’s national leader, empowered governors to oversee ticket allocation in their states ahead of 2027, it remains unclear whether Fubara controls the APC machinery in Rivers.

Fubara has yet to enjoy the full privileges traditionally extended to defecting governors. Of the seven PDP governors who crossed to the APC, Fubara remains the only one yet to be formally received with the customary fanfare, including the presentation of the party flag by the leadership and Vice President Kashim Shettima.

All politics is local. If you do not get it right at the local level, you will struggle, regardless of what is promised nationally

The APC national chairman, Nentawe Yilwatda, has downplayed the significance of the delay. His spokesman, Abimbola Atoki, attributes it to scheduling difficulties.

“It has been difficult to find the perfect time,” he says. “In the cases of the other governors, the vice president was present. So if the vice president would not be available, what is the point?”

Party insiders admit Rivers presents a uniquely delicate equation because of Wike’s role within the Tinubu administration.

“You cannot compare Rivers with any other state. Rivers has its own peculiarity,” one APC source says.

“No defecting governor was guaranteed a return ticket. There were always negotiations and power-sharing arrangements between old and new members. But Rivers is different because of Wike.”

Despite being in the PDP,  Wike controls the Rivers APC structure, the legislature and the grassroots, where his loyalists chair all 23 local government councils.

That influence makes him more valuable in Tinubu’s calculations to retain Rivers State and maintain grip in the oil-rich Niger Delta region.

According to the insider, the odds remain stacked against Fubara despite his move to the APC in search of Tinubu’s political protection.

“All politics is local. If you do not get it right at the local level, you will struggle, regardless of what is promised nationally,” he says.

Will APC sacrifice Fubara for Wike?

A civil servant who rose to the peak of his career, becoming a permanent secretary, Fubara is a political creation of Wike, who appointed him as Rivers State’s accountant-general in 2020, annointed him as successor in 2022 and helped him to win the governorship election in 2023.

But the relationship broke down barely four months into Fubara’s tenure, triggering a feud that has persisted despite Tinubu’s efforts to accommodate both men through a political truce.

Recent developments have fuelled speculation that the APC may ultimately prioritise Wike’s support over Fubara’s political future.

At the weekend, the party’s screening committee disqualified several prominent Fubara loyalists seeking state assembly tickets, while aspirants aligned with Wike scaled through the process.

Fubara appeared before the screening panel on Sunday and left the venue abruptly without speaking to journalists.

Although Wike denied influencing the screening process, he held a private meeting with the APC national chairman days after the exercise.

Despite growing tensions, Fubara on Wednesday dismissed speculation that he could defect to another political party, insisting he remains committed to the APC “whatever happens”. (The Africa Report)